Russia steps up pressure in Georgia, loses influence in Armenia — US intelligence report

US intelligence report on Russia in South Caucasus

Moscow is almost certainly seeking to bring Georgia back into its sphere of influence and has already made progress through internal political developments in the country, according to the annual report of the US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), presented to Congress.

According to DIA analysts, following the parliamentary elections of October 2024, the ruling Georgian Dream party created favourable conditions for the growth of Russian influence. This conclusion comes against the backdrop of ongoing mass protests in Tbilisi and accusations that the country is drifting away from its path toward European integration.

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Notably, the report makes almost no mention of Azerbaijan, while Armenia features prominently as an example of deteriorating ties with Moscow. According to the DIA, Russian-Armenian relations “worsened over the past year,” particularly after Armenia announced its potential withdrawal from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), prompting Russia to launch an information campaign against Armenia’s democratic path and pro-Western leadership.

Thus, against the broader trend of increased Russian activity across the post-Soviet space, the South Caucasus presents a mixed picture: Georgia is on a trajectory of “soft annexation of influence,” Armenia is on the verge of a geopolitical shift, and Azerbaijan is absent from the report altogether — which could indicate either stability or a lack of transparency in the country’s current developments.

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The Annual Threat Assessment by the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) is one of the key yearly documents produced by the American intelligence community and submitted to the U.S. Congress. It outlines the DIA’s assessment of the most pressing and long-term threats to U.S. national security, including military, cyber, nuclear, and geopolitical challenges.

Compiled using intelligence from over 140 countries, the report serves not only as a tool for internal strategic planning, but also as a signal to allies and adversaries regarding the Pentagon’s priorities and concerns. Its contents influence budget allocation, foreign policy decisions, and U.S. defence initiatives.