Pashinyan-Putin fourth meeting this year, details are not yet disclosed

On October 12, the fourth meeting of Putin and Pashinyan took place in Moscow. The details of what the Prime Minister of Armenia and the President of Russia have agreed on have not yet been disclosed. The details known about the meeting are the previously announced agenda of the issues that will be touched upon, as well as what Putin and Pashinyan said in front of the cameras before the start of the talks.

At the same time, the Minister of Defense of Armenia and the Catholicos of All Armenians Garegin II visiting Moscow. However, experts do not expect anything positive for Armenia from these meetings.

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What was said in front of the cameras

Putin stressed that he often talks with Pashinyan by phone, but personal meetings “are more productive to achieve the desired result”.

“We will talk in both formal and informal settings, have lunch together, discuss current affairs and talk about prospects. Soon we will have a CIS summit, I would like to check in with you in this area and, of course, on the main issues of our interaction, including the settlement in the region today and in the long term”.

Pashinyan replied that frequent meetings testify to the dynamics of relations between Armenia and Russia as strategic allies and immediately started talking about security in the region – amid the dynamic processes taking place both in the world as a whole and in the South Caucasus region itself.

“It is very important that the allies meet frequently and check their watches. Unfortunately, in our region we cannot yet speak of a complete stabilization of the situation. The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict remains unresolved and it is clear that in resolving the conflict and ensuring security in our region, Russia plays a key role and is the co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group. […] And I am glad to discuss this whole agenda with you”.

Official negotiation agenda

It was reported in advance that during the negotiations it is planned to consider

• Progress in the implementation of the statement of the leaders of Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan on Nagorno-Karabakh of November 9, 2020 [on the cessation of hostilities] and of January 11, 2021 [on the creation of the Yerevan-Baku-Moscow working groups chaired by the vice-premiers to fulfill the clauses of the ceasefire statement ],
• Further steps to strengthen stability and establish economic ties in the region,
• Topical issues of the development of bilateral relations and interaction in integration associations in the Eurasian space.

Coincidence or unannounced agreements?

Simultaneously with Pashinyan’s visit, Armenian Defense Minister Arshak Karapetyan is also in Moscow and he has already met with his Russian counterpart Sergei Shoigu.

No details were given about this meeting. There is only information that during the meeting “the parties discussed issues related to bilateral cooperation in the defense sphere, the situation on the border of Armenia and regional security”.

Since October 11, the Catholicos of All Armenians Garegin II has been in Moscow. He has already met with Patriarch Kirill of Moscow and All Russia. On October 13, a trilateral meeting of Garegin II, the Russian partyriarch and the chairman of the Caucasian Muslims Office (CMO) Sheikh-ul-Islam Allahshukur Pashazade is expected.

Users of the Armenian segment of social networks are discussing what these coincident visits mean: can it mean that there are some agreements for which societies will be prepared, or is it just a coincidence.

Expert opinion

Armenian political analysts have so far refrained from commenting and awaiting additional information.

However, political observer Naira Hayrumyan commented on this coincidence on her Facebook page even before the meeting:

The “Armenian trio” in Moscow embodies the humiliating essence of the bargaining in which the country’s current political class eagerly participates:

• Exchange sovereignty for a “corridor” [Azerbaijan demands a corridor through the south of Armenia to its exclave of Nakhichevan, the Armenian side, at least until that moment, did not agree to provide a road that would not be under its control – JAMnews],
• Syunik – on the refusal of “security costs” [Syunik is the southern region of Armenia, bordering with Azerbaijan, where from May 12 the Azerbaijani armed forces invaded several kilometers and are not retreating, despite the demand to leave the sovereign territory of Armenia],
• Armenian spiritual heritage in Artsakh – on prisoners [who continue to be held by the Azerbaijani side after the end of hostilities in Karabakh],
• Artsakh itself – for the “era of satiety”.

Armenia’s lack of “red lines”, a clear position on the inviolability of borders, Artsakh and sovereignty leaves room for bargaining, in which the price is set by others”.