Is Ukraine ready for negotiations with Russia? A view from Baku
Kuleba’s visit to Beijing
On July 23, Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba visited China to hold talks with the Chinese Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, on achieving a “just peace” in the war with Russia, as well as to discuss Ukraine-China relations.
This trip marks the first visit by a high-ranking Ukrainian official to Beijing since Russia’s full-scale invasion began in February 2022, an event that China has not publicly condemned. Just days before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, China declared a “no limits” partnership with Russia.
Following the meeting, Russian state news agency RIA Novosti reported, citing a spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, that Kuleba told Wang Yi that Ukraine was “ready to negotiate with the Russian side.”
However, Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Georgiy Tikhiy told BBC Ukraine that Russian media “distorted” Dmytro Kuleba’s words.
Reuters and Ukrainian media, referring to a statement from the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, reported that Kuleba told the Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi that Kyiv was ready to negotiate “at a certain stage, provided that Moscow is prepared for good-faith negotiations, which is not the case so far.”
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Azerbaijani political analysts comment on Kuleba’s visit to Beijing and Ukraine-China Relations in the Context of the Ukraine-Russia war.
Is Ukraine ready for negotiations?
Elkhan Shahinoglu, head of the Atlas research center:
“This question has become relevant since Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba stated in Beijing, where he visited for the first time in the last two years, that Kyiv is ready for negotiations with Moscow. Moscow immediately responded: ‘We are ready for negotiations!’
However, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry later clarified Dmytro Kuleba’s statement. Negotiations must be held in the context of Russia halting its aggressive war and withdrawing troops from Ukrainian territory. It is clear that the Kremlin will not accept such a condition from Kyiv.
Another relevant question arose: why did Kuleba go to Beijing if China is a partner of Russia?
It is evident that this trip was coordinated with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky. It seems Kyiv wants to gauge Beijing’s stance and study the Chinese government’s influence on the Kremlin regarding peace. Although the Russia-Ukraine war contradicts the interests of China as well as Western countries, Beijing is not showing sufficient activity to stop it.
Kyiv wants Beijing to shift from its partnership with Russia to a balanced position. The foreign minister of a warring country spent three days in Beijing. Thus, Kuleba aimed to hold deep discussions with Chinese officials. Kyiv is trying to persuade Chinese leader Xi Jinping to visit Ukraine.
Washington closely monitored Kuleba’s visit to China. Like Kyiv, Washington wants Beijing to influence Moscow, but it has not succeeded in achieving this. There are deep disagreements between Washington and Beijing on other issues. Beijing sharply criticizes Washington’s policy towards Taiwan, while Washington opposes Beijing’s desire to take over the island.
Another problem has arisen between the two countries. According to Bloomberg, a new Pentagon report states that the U.S. will expand its military training and oversight in the Arctic in light of growing Chinese and Russian interest in the region. According to the U.S. Department of Defense’s “2024 Arctic Strategy,” measures are needed to “prevent the Arctic from becoming a strategic blind spot” as melting ice makes the region more accessible economically and militarily.”
“Ukraine’s exaggeration of China’s influence reflects Kyiv’s concerns”
Political commentator Agshin Kerimov shared his insights and forecasts regarding China-Ukraine negotiations:
“My theses:
The meeting between Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi and his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba creates an alternative to NATO’s role in resolving the war.
Indicators:
- During the ministers’ discussion, there was an in-depth exchange of views on the six-point peace plan prepared by China and Brazil in May.
- This meeting highlights aspects of a platform that supports the revival of the BRICS format (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) against NATO in resolving the war in Ukraine.
- The war in Ukraine underscores the efforts of global and regional players to find common ground with China. Ukraine also recognizes China’s crucial geopolitical role.
The Beijing-Kyiv negotiations express Ukraine’s desire to sit at the negotiating table with Russia through China. - The debates demonstrate the ineffectiveness of NATO’s containment of Russia in the war in Ukraine and suggest that there is little hope in the West for a peace plan focused on China.
- However, when it comes to resolving the crisis in Ukraine, China’s position is based solely on the principle of not expanding the battlefield. So far, China has not proposed the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine as a condition for peace.
- Ukraine’s exaggeration of China’s influence reflects Kyiv’s concern that Donald Trump might win the U.S. presidential election.”
Forecasts:
- China’s moderation will imply a limited situational resolution of the war through dialogue and negotiations at the initial stage. This is possible with a ceasefire agreement for a few days.
- If China achieves this goal, it will seek to organize high-level negotiations between Russia and Ukraine at the second stage.
Kuleba’s visit to Beijing
