Is the idea of a referendum on opening a “second front” in Georgia a threat to Abkhazia? Comment
Second Front in Georgia and Abkhazia
Irakli Kobakhidze’s statement on holding a referendum in Georgia on the opening of a “second front” caused a strong reaction in Abkhazia. Many in society regarded this as a possible threat to the security of Abkhazia.
Comment
Former Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Abkhazia, Kan Tania
“Let the people say whether they want to open a second front in Georgia against Russia,” Irakli Kobakhidze, head of the Georgian Dream party, replied to Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine member Venislavsky, who advised Georgia “to take concrete steps to liberate Abkhazia and South Ossetia.”
Other Ukrainian politicians, Mykhailo Podolyak and Aleksey Arestovich, have approached the leadership of Georgia with similar “advice”.
Let’s figure this out.
1.We know that there are revanchist sentiments in Georgia towards Abkhazia. But at the same time, the current government has repeatedly stated the impossibility of a forceful solution.
But we understand that the words of the Georgian leaders regarding Abkhazia and South Ossetia are worthless. Today they call us brothers, and tomorrow – enemy combatants.
2. It should be taken into account that there are a number of interstate agreements in the field of joint defense between Abkhazia and Russia and between Russia and South Ossetia. In particular, they provide for the use of a joint force in the event of a military threat.
Russian military bases are also located in Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
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3. Obviously the leadership of Georgia long ago decided not to open a “second front”. And the head of the ruling party declared that the government ALLOWS the POSSIBILITY of a plebiscite only to give this position more legitimacy.
This news is not yet a decision to hold it. This is a demonstration of confidence that in the event of a referendum, the opinion of the current government will coincide with the opinion of the majority.
4.Georgia is in a double-bind, where any political step worsens the situation.
● If it opened a “second front” – it will be just like Russia.
● If they don’t open a “second front” – the collective West will be disappointed in Georgia and its desire to join the European Union will be thwarted.
Conclusion: The Georgian authorities will allow a referendum to be held only if they are absolutely sure that the people will speak out against the opening of a “second front”.
It is necessary to take into account the experience of Georgia’s previous attempts to resolve its issues by force. Russian military assistance was provided to Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
In the current geopolitical situation in the world, another attempt by Georgia to initiate hostilities may turn out to have much more serious consequences for it than in 2008.
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Second Front in Georgia and Abkhazia
