How likely is a union agreement between Azerbaijan and Turkey? - commentary from Baku

Geopolitical changes in the region and Russia’s increasing pressure on neighboring countries pose a real threat to the independence of Azerbaijan, says Azerbaijani opposition Republican Alternative party member Natiq Jafarli.

Many in the country, Jafarli says, are now looking to Turkey for stability in the form of a ‘union agreement.’ JAMnews presents Jafarli’s Facebook commentary on what this might look like and the possibility of this happening.

• Georgian gov’t, opposition standoff at an end? What’s in the newly signed agreement
• How have Armenian villages ended up in Azerbaijan?

“So far, Russia is winning”

“Russia is strengthening its role, while the West still does not know what steps to take and is still giving in at every step. Perhaps, in the medium and long term, the West will again be ahead, but the United States and the European Union are now experiencing serious problems in terms of leadership. The worst thing here is that this is not a problem of today – the strengthening of Russia’s position has been going on since the 2007 Munich conference,” the politician writes.

“Then there was the war in Georgia – the West again could not oppose anything, then Crimea, Donbass, events in Belarus, and finally, under the name of ‘peacekeepers’, Russia has brought its army onto our territory – and Russia is still winning in the whole chain of these events”, Jafarli continues.

The West either does not know the post-Soviet space, or does not want to know and study it, and the worst thing is it surrenders it to Russia in a long-term play, Jafarli thinks.

“After the elections, the West made a mistake”

“The West hopes that by throwing the solution of all the problems of the post-Soviet space onto Russia, it will break the Kremlin, and in the end Russia, unable to bear the material, political and economic burdens, will surrender. In my opinion, this is a very risky plan, and even if it succeeds, this plan tarnishes the present day of the republics of the former USSR, frightens their population.

The biggest mistake in the last year was made by the West in Belarus – although Lukashenka is a dictator, an authoritarian leader, after Crimea and Donbass he was scared, wanted to distance himself from Moscow and get closer to the West. He even began negotiations with the European Union and the United States, serious visits took place, documents were signed, and more encompassing documents were being prepared for signing.

It was Lukashenka who, preferring the independence of Belarus, prevented the creation of a ‘union state’ with Russia. But shortly before the last elections, the Kremlin played out a scenario there – Lukashenka’s main opponents were precisely the people of the Kremlin, and a year and a half before the elections, Russian TV channels humiliated Lukashenka. We can say that the main tribune of the ‘opposition’ was Russian TV. And after the elections, the West made a mistake and actually pushed the Old Man into the arms of the Kremlin.

“Hard times will come for us”

On April 22, a meeting will take place between Putin and Lukashenka. Moscow has already created such a situation that the latter now agrees to everything – it seems to me that on April 22 a new, more integrated union state Russia-Belarus will be announced – and this can become the basis for the resurrection of the USSR.

After that, Russia will easily ‘swallow’ Kyrgyzstan – the last change of power there served exactly this purpose, after that it will come for Kazakhstan, the next step will be the annexation of Donbass, but the most dangerous moment for us is Armenia. If the Kremlin manages to accomplish its plans there in the summer, official Yerevan will also enter the new USSR, in fact, defeat in the war laid the foundation for this – Armenia would understand that alone, without the help of the Russian Bear, its existence as a country would remain in question.

The situation is difficult, if this scenario starts to come true, hard times will come for us, the Kremlin is already openly threatening with the mouth of Dugin, pulling Azerbaijan into the ‘USSR’.

“If the choice remains between the USSR and confederation with Turkey…”

And what should we do?! If on April 22 in Moscow the resurrection of the ‘USSR’ is announced, we should not be late to signing an alliance treaty with Turkey, to allow the Turkish army to establish its bases on our territory. There is no other way, because if the choice remains between the USSR and confederation with Turkey, I think there is nothing to think about, the choice is clear, only in the new confederate state, in the Ankara-Baku union, can we preserve our independence.

To our great regret, the collective West is playing for a more distant prospect, in the short term it throws all of us as food into the mouth of the Kremlin, knows that Moscow will not digest this, and will eventually choke, but this will take a long time. And we do not have this time – independence may be questioned – our greatest achievement …

P.S. If Biden calls the events of 1915 “genocide” on April 24, this will increase the tension between the West and Turkey and Azerbaijan, and one must also be ready for this. If the US does it, they will alienate Turkey and Azerbaijan, and we have nowhere else to go, which means we have to march together…”, Natiq Jafarli wrote on his Facebook page.