Baku analyst: "Moscow inspires separatist sentiments in Karabakh"

JAMnews

Baku

Moscow inspires separatism in Karabakh

In the part of Karabakh, where Russian peacekeepers are temporarily stationed, cases of confrontation between local forces and Azerbaijani military personnel have become more frequent. According to Azerbaijani political scientist, former state adviser Gabil Huseynli, all these processes are controlled by Moscow.

What happened?

In recent days, two motorcades of the Azerbaijani armed forces, who tried to pass to the Kelbajar region through the territory where Russian peacekeepers are temporarily stationed, faced opposition from local Armenian residents. The intervention of the leadership of the peacekeeping contingent did not yield any results.

Azerbaijani motorcades were driving along the Agdere-Kelbajar road, passing through the territory of the former Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region, because a large amount of snow fell on the road connecting Kalbajar with the Khanlar region of Azerbaijan.

Expert commentary

“The separatists are crossing all the red lines. Now the terms of the tripartite statement of November 10, 2020, are being grossly violated there. They are working on a “draft constitution”, they want to hold elections for a new “parliament” and “president” and, oddly enough, voice their territorial demands to Azerbaijan. They demand the “return” of Hadrut, the village of Gulustan in the Goranboy region and the city of Shusha”, said Azerbaijani political scientist, former state adviser, and professor Gabil Huseynli.

According to him, all these actions are aimed at provoking Azerbaijan to drastic actions: “Forces interested in increasing tension in the region are involved in this. Of course, Azerbaijan is also carrying out preparatory work that is quite logical in such a situation”.

“It is noteworthy that cases of confrontation have become more frequent after Arayik Harutyunyan’s trip to Moscow. Azerbaijan put this person on the international wanted list, and, the other day, the country’s Prosecutor General’s Office called for the “president” of the separatist regime to be arrested as soon as possible. This statement also led to increasing tensions.

If we consider the cases when our convoy was stopped by local residents in Karabakh, it is easy to see that the peacekeeping contingent simply does not cope with the tasks assigned to it.

This is a strategy, aimed at destabilizing the situation. Apparently, someone does not like the prospect of the signing of a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan. We will not be mistaken if we say that it once again smells like gunpowder in Karabakh.

To be very frank, all these processes are managed from a single center – from Moscow. Some of these plans are directed against Pashinyan and his team, some against Azerbaijan and its sovereignty over its own territories.

It’s no secret that Robert Kocharyan has close relations with Russian counterintelligence. Now the trial of this man is ongoing in Yerevan. Despite the threat of imprisonment for 12 years, Kocharyan makes revanchist statements, clearly fulfilling the order of his northern neighbor.

But Yerevan is well aware that no one will follow Kocharyan, and the successful future of Armenia depends on a peace treaty with Azerbaijan and the restoration of relations with Turkey. These quite healthy thoughts were voiced by the leaders of Armenia”.

At present, Russia is in a very difficult situation, which is proved by the events around Ukraine, Gabil Huseynli believes.

“I am not a supporter of confrontation with Russia. They need to explain everything clearly. I can not say that this time has already come. But what is happening is openly provocative.

But Azerbaijan is not sitting by idly either. We all know that the part of Karabakh, where Russian peacekeepers are temporarily stationed, is surrounded on all sides by the army of Azerbaijan armed to the teeth with modern weapons. There are also border troops and special forces – commandos. But this does not mean that they will be ordered to go on the offensive.

Now is not the time to take risky steps. In my opinion, Azerbaijan should wait for the completion of the processes around Ukraine and take into account the position of fraternal Turkey on this issue.

At the same time, damage to the peace process between Azerbaijan and Armenia cannot be allowed. Yes, if there were revanchist forces in the leadership of Armenia, Azerbaijan’s position would be completely different. But this is a double-edged sword, and one of the ends affects the interests of Pashinyan, who is positive about signing a peace treaty.

Therefore, a number of factors and nuances must be taken into account. And now, when the Kremlin’s head is occupied with completely different issues, negotiations about the situation in the region are not entirely appropriate.