"Bold actions can lead to serious problems," says Armenian economist
Armenia’s trade with the West
The Armenian government has been emphasizing the need to access Western markets, aiming to enhance the country’s ‘economic resilience and resistance.’ Last week, the prime minister discussed the possibilities of diversifying the country’s economy with the head of the European Commission and the US Secretary of State in Brussels.
However, Armenian experts argue that efforts to reduce the country’s dependence on Russia remain “unnoticed and insufficient.” Economist Suren Parsyan, citing official statistics, points out that in 2023, approximately 36 percent of Armenia’s trade turnover was with EAEU countries, mainly Russia.
Armenia’s authorities also report deepening economic ties within the framework of the Eurasian Economic Union, operating under the auspices of Russia.
“In 2023, Armenia’s trade turnover with EAEU countries amounted to about $7.8 billion. Exports increased by 40.8 percent, while imports grew by 37.5 percent,” prime minister Nikol Pashinyan stated at the intergovernmental council meeting of the EAEU in February of this year.
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“Russia remains the primary market”
Economist Suren Parsyan believes that Russia remains the primary market for Armenia:
“Politics is one thing, numbers are another. Numbers don’t lie. They demonstrate Armenia’s significant dependence on Russia. EAEU countries, including Russia, continue to be the main export market for Armenian products.”
The expert asserts that the trade turnover with Russia and EAEU countries far exceeds that with the EU and the US combined:
“The overall trade turnover with EU countries accounts for about 12.9 percent of our trade turnover, with the US at 3.2 percent. And this is a significant difference compared to the trade turnover with the EAEU, which is approximately 36 percent.”
According to the economist, Armenia’s exports to EU countries decreased by 8.2 percent and by 38 percent to the US. He considers this “very alarming”.
Meanwhile, exports to the Russian market increased by 40 percent, the economist emphasizes. And, of course, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict contributed to the growth in trade with Russia.
“This is a lengthy process, and it will come at a high cost”
Suren Parsyan regards the increase in Armenia’s export volumes to the West as a long-term and costly task. He reminds us of the “high European standards” that still need to be achieved. Based on current statistical data, the expert concludes that Armenia cannot reconsider its membership in the EAEU at this stage.
“We need to buy time, work with different countries, strengthen the country’s economy, and diversify connections,” Parsyan insists. Only after that does he consider it reasonable to take steps to exit the EAEU:
“Any abrupt move at the moment is fraught with significant economic losses.”
Meanwhile, according to the economist, the government should take steps to search for new export markets. He believes this task should have been addressed several years ago.
As Parsyan states, it is now essential to develop clear actions to ensure food and energy security, export diversification, and access to new markets.
