"Dissolution of Minsk Group aligns with Yerevan’s interests" – Armenian political scientist
Armenia on dissolving the Minsk Group
“The continuation of the Minsk process can be considered in the context of a comprehensive resolution of relations, primarily through the signing of a peace agreement,” – the Armenian Foreign Ministry stated in response to a query from Radio Azatutyun about Yerevan’s stance on Baku’s proposal to jointly request the OSCE to dissolve the Minsk Group. However, the ministry did not clarify if Azerbaijan’s demand for the Minsk Group’s dissolution is a prerequisite for a peace deal or if Armenia is likely to accept Baku’s proposal.
Azerbaijan’s leadership primarily discusses the dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group in the context of signing a peace agreement and alongside demands for constitutional changes in Armenia. Azerbaijan believes that if Armenia does not amend its constitution and agree to request the dissolution of the Minsk Group, it indicates Armenia’s territorial claims against Azerbaijan.
Political scientist Robert Ghevondyan argues that the Minsk Group is ineffective and that its dissolution does not conflict with Armenia’s interests. At the same time, its dissolution does not mean that the issue of Armenian rights in Nagorno-Karabakh is closed for discussion.
“The dissolution of the Minsk Group does not remove the rights of Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh, including the right to return to their homes or even declare independence. It also does not negate Azerbaijan’s obligations to the Armenian population within its territory,” Ghevondyan said in an interview with JAMnews.
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The OSCE Minsk Group was established in 1992. It was a group of OSCE member countries that played a mediating role in negotiations over the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Peace talks under the Minsk Group continued until the start of the 2020 war. The group includes Germany, Italy, Finland, Sweden, Belarus, Turkey, Armenia, and Azerbaijan. Co-chairing are Russia, the United States, and France. Relations among the co-chairing countries have deteriorated with the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war, making joint activities unlikely.
During its active years, the Minsk Group proposed various settlement plans to the conflicting parties, including a package deal, phased resolution, the idea of a joint state, the “Madrid Principles,” the “Kazan Principles,” and the “Lavrov Plan.” However, consensus was not reached on any of these proposals.
Is Azerbaijan’s proposal acceptable?
In early June, Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev stated:
“We have already proposed to the Armenian side that Azerbaijan and Armenia jointly appeal to the OSCE to dissolve the Minsk Group. It is no longer needed. It is currently not functioning, and we will prevent it from functioning. Also, it should be legally dissolved. This will show how sincere Armenia is.”
There has been no response from the Armenian authorities, and opposition figures have deemed Baku’s proposal unacceptable. They argue that although the structure is currently inactive, it is a legitimate international format with legal status. They believe it is necessary for protecting the rights of Karabakh Armenians.
Members of the ruling team have suggested that the Minsk Group could only be dissolved after a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan is signed.
“Discussions about the Minsk Group can occur after the peace agreement is signed. Once we sign the peace agreement, there will be no further need for its existence,” said Parliament speaker Alen Simonyan.
Expert opinion
Political scientist Robert Ghevondyan commented:
“Yerevan is likely considering the possibility of dissolving the Minsk Group. Since 2020, the Minsk Group has de facto ceased to function. After the events of September 19, 2023, and the Armenian withdrawal from Nagorno-Karabakh, the Minsk Group effectively ceased to exist.
In this context, the nominal existence of the Minsk Group offers Armenia nothing. Dissolution of the group is unlikely to be a problem for Yerevan.
Armenia views this issue through the lens of a peace agreement, signaling to Azerbaijan that ‘if you want something, you need to make reciprocal moves yourself.’ In other words, if we join you in addressing the Minsk Group issue, we need to know what we will gain in return.
It’s time to move away from unilateral actions. For Armenia to agree to the Minsk Group’s dissolution, Azerbaijan will also need to make concessions.
For example, Azerbaijan should stop insisting on constitutional amendments in Armenia and advance on the peace agreement. Other components might be included in which Azerbaijan agrees to Armenia’s proposals. In such a case, Yerevan would have no problem agreeing to dissolve the Minsk Group.
The dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group could occur alongside the signing of a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Ideally, the issue should be resolved in one document, with a clause stating that Yerevan and Baku will jointly request the group’s dissolution.
Baku is deeply concerned about potential revanchist sentiments from Armenia, as reflected in many statements and the negotiation process. This is why Azerbaijan wants to eliminate all traces of the previous process.
It would be beneficial to use this factor for psychological impact on Azerbaijan, but if it hinders the peace process, it’s better to forego this psychological leverage.
The peace agreement signed between Yerevan and Baku will establish relations between the Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Azerbaijan. It will not address the Nagorno-Karabakh issue directly. If there is any mention, it will likely be Armenia’s recognition of Azerbaijani territory beyond its borders.
However, this does not exclude the possibility that within Azerbaijan, indigenous [Armenian] populations may have rights, including the right to independence. Thus, the agreement itself does not exclude the Minsk Group’s functions.
But if Armenia and Azerbaijan sign the treaty, Armenia, as a Minsk Group member, will acknowledge that no unit associated with it exists beyond its borders, rendering Armenia’s participation in the Minsk Group nominal. To resolve the issue de jure, the Minsk Group would need to be dissolved.
I want to emphasize that the right of Karabakh Armenians to return to their homeland is not connected to the existence or dissolution of any international format.
These people are indigenous; this is their homeland. They have the right to continue living in their homes. Whether the Minsk Group exists or not, their right cannot be disputed.”
