Discussing the Iranian president's helicopter crash: 'They won't hesitate to blame Azerbaijan'

Azerbaijani experts on Raisi’s death

On May 19, a helicopter crash in the northern mountains of Iran tragically claimed the lives of Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi, Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian, and other officials. The incident occurred shortly after the helicopter took off from Iranian territory following a meeting at the border with Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev.

Despite the announcement of the passengers’ and crew’s deaths only this morning and the investigation just beginning, some bloggers and analysts are already quick to blame Azerbaijan for the incident.

• Azerbaijan fined €14,700 in three cases by the European Court
• Azerbaijanis return to Karabakh: Who can relocate and how? Answers to 8 questions
• “Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia need a common vision to avoid being used against each other.” A perspective from Baku

Azerbaijani experts are commenting on the incident, emphasizing potential accusations from the Iranian side.

“Şərqə baxış” (“Look to the East”) group experts

“The confirmed death of Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi and other officials in the helicopter crash is tragic. The exact causes will be known once the black box is decoded. Regardless of the cause, Iranian media will not hesitate to blame Azerbaijan for the incident.

Even if the main cause is found to be a technical malfunction, the Iranian side is likely to emphasize the possibility of external interference rather than accept their own error. This approach is well-known for its frequency in Iranian responses.

Iranian media have already begun hinting at an Israeli connection to the crash, and such reports are expected to continue.

Unfortunately, regardless of the true circumstances of the incident, Azerbaijan is likely to become the focus of a major information war and will be frequently mentioned in this context.”

"Iran has no serious grounds for claims against Azerbaijan" – Tofig Zulfugarov

“Iran’s political elite is aware that the increase in tension between countries is not beneficial to anyone”

Military expert Azad Isazade

“This is undoubtedly a great tragedy, regardless of where it happened. However, I believe this was a regular accident, and looking for a conspiracy theory is not correct.

The weather conditions were indeed very challenging. Finding the crash site and reaching it took a significant amount of time. If I am not mistaken, the exact crash location was eventually identified with the help of an ‘Akinci’ drone from Turkey. Even after pinpointing the site, reaching it was difficult due to the lack of roads.

We should limit ourselves to offering condolences. May their souls rest in peace. While this is a major tragedy for Iran, I do not think it will lead to significant political changes. We know that Iran’s politics do not rely on a single individual, and the president’s powers are limited. Key decisions in Iran are made by the Supreme Leader.”

"BRICS expansion: new opportunities for Azerbaijan". Opinion from Baku

The expansion of BRICS, and Azerbaijan’s neighborhood with two members of this group creates favorable conditions for the country’s development, CSSC analysts believe

Political analyst Agshin Kerimov

“Briefly about the incident involving Ebrahim Raisi’s helicopter:

• Indeed, photos from the crash site show dense fog;
• Despite this, weather conditions do not rule out the possibility of provocations;
• In the political establishment, Raisi was one of the candidates for the position of Supreme Leader of the country in the post-Khamenei period;
• The crash of Raisi’s helicopter right after his meeting with Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev cannot be overlooked in the context of geopolitical events in the region;

The question arises: who benefits from the disruption of Azerbaijan-Iran relations?”

Geopolitical struggle in the South Caucasus and Azerbaijan's wait-and-see attitude

The negotiation process between Azerbaijan and Armenia has stopped. What is Azerbaijan’s wait-and-see attitude related to?

The answer to this question lies in two possible versions:

1. The rapprochement between Baku and Tehran does not fully align with the interests of radical factions within Iran. Thus, a scenario was needed to block Raisi’s path to becoming the Supreme Leader while simultaneously undermining his role in relations with Baku.
2. Azerbaijan was collaborating with Iran to fully launch the international transport corridor “North-South,” which also interested Russia. It remains to be investigated which external force might have viewed this process so jealously. If the incident was not just a technical accident but a scenario controlled from outside, the issue might be hidden in the struggle for control over these corridors.

Analyzing these possibilities, I think it is mistaken to look for Israeli involvement in this incident.