“Armenia is leaving the club of failed states” – Armenian political scientist
Russia, Armenia, EU observers
Armenia is discussing a message from the Russian Foreign Ministry intended for the media in which Moscow accuses the European Union of pursuing a “confrontational policy in the CIS space.” The Russian Foreign Ministry questioned the civilian nature and effectiveness of the mission to be sent to Armenia to monitor the border with Azerbaijan. In Armenia, it is believed that Moscow even threatened European observers with the presence of Russian border guards in a statement:
“They will react to the behavior of EU observers, taking into account the development of the situation on the ground.”
On January 23, the Council of the European Union decided to deploy a civilian monitoring mission on the territory of Armenia to last for two years. “The objectives of the mission are to contribute to stability in the border regions of Armenia, to strengthen trust on the ground and create conditions for the normalization of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan,” the EU Council reported.
According to political scientist Gurgen Simonyan, Russia is frightened by “Armenia leaving the club of failed states” and trying to build mutually beneficial relations with the civilized world. He believes that if Yerevan succeeds, Moscow’s presence in the region would be in jeopardy.
Assessment of the European mission by the Russian Foreign Ministry
The Russian Foreign Ministry said in its statement that “no ‘added value’ is expected from the EU ‘experts’ keeping an eye on events” along the Armenian-Azerbaijani border:
“If Brussels were sincerely interested in peace in the Transcaucasus, they would agree on the terms of their mission’s work with Azerbaijan. Having the EU in the border regions of Armenia, which has degenerated into an appendage of the United States and NATO, and pursuing a confrontational policy in the CIS space, can only bring geopolitical confrontation to the region and exacerbate existing contradictions.”
Russian diplomats doubt the “civilian nature of the mission” since it is part of “the EU’s common security and defense policy with all the ensuing consequences.”
The Russian Foreign Ministry, once again stated that the EU’s attempts to neutralize Russia’s mediation efforts could harm the interests of Armenians and Azerbaijanis:
“We are convinced that the key factor for stability and security in the region for the foreseeable future remains the Russian peacekeeping contingent deployed on the basis of the statement of the leaders of Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia dated November 9, 2020, as well as the Russian border guards serving on the Armenian border.”
The Armenian authorities are accused of not bringing “he work on the direction of the CSTO mission to its logical conclusion; they preferred to make a choice in favor of the EU.”
The Armenian authorities have several times turned to Russia and the CSTO military bloc operating under its leadership to protect the borders and sovereign territory of the country from the invasion of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces, but its allies did not provide military assistance. The Prime Minister of Armenia stated that he expected a clearly formulated political assessment of the reality of invasion.
“To refrain from such an assessment, saying that there is no border between Armenia and Azerbaijan, means to assert that there is no zone of responsibility of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, and if there is no zone of responsibility, then there is no organization itself,” Nikol Pashinyan said.
And now the Russian Foreign Ministry has again suggested that the Armenian authorities are considering the possibility of applying to the CSTO:
“If Armenia is still interested in realizing the potential of the CSTO, then the mission of the organization can be quickly deployed in Armenia.”
Comment
According to political scientist Gurgen Simonyan, Moscow’s tough statement is connected to the war Russia is waging in Ukraine.
“They created a false agenda, looked for and found witches in the person of NATO and the EU, to cover up their own aggressive policy towards their neighbors. Therefore any involvement of foreign states or international structures in resolving issues in the former post-Soviet countries is considered through this lense,” he told JAMnews.
Simonyan believes that Armenia considers the issue of deploying CSTO observers on the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan closed.
He calls the assessment of the Russian Foreign Ministry that one should not be mistaken about the “civilian nature of the EU mission” “an outright lie.” He also believes that Moscow is worried about the already accomplished reality, which will gain even greater momentum:
“Armenia is leaving the club of failed states. It will build full, sovereign, mutually beneficial relations with the civilized world as an independent entity. Russia is afraid of this, because if Armenia has this opportunity, the Russian presence in the region would be threatened.”
Simonyan says that Moscow staked on Azerbaijan in an erroneous political calculation, “so now let Baku provide the Russian presence in the region.”
When asked about the admissibility of such a harsh statement against Russia, the expert said:
“Russia is not an ally of Armenia. These military-political treaties are worthless if their policies are not carried out.“
It is no coincidence, in his opinion, that Moscow refers and repeats Baku’s point of view that “if Brussels were sincerely interested in peace in the Transcaucasus, they would agree on the terms of their mission’s work with Azerbaijan.”
According to Simonyan, Russia has dropped its role of objective mediator and become an active party working against Armenia:
“This policy is carried out in the context of the Russian-Azerbaijani, and if you look at the root, the Russian-Turkish agreements, from the clutches of which Armenia is trying to break free.”
The expert emphasizes that Russia will do everything “to serve its interests” and Armenia should “not succumb to blackmail and ultimatums.”
“We should continue the chosen path of close cooperation with the civilized world, seek support for our national security in the West. And these relations should be developed until our positioning in the camp of civilized, democratic states improves ,” Simonyan says.
According to Gurgen Simonyan, Russia has courted a true existential threat in its war with Ukraine, and this is the result of “incorrect military-political calculations.” He says Armenia must “make a decision and not allow itself to remain under these ruins.”
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Russia about EU observers
