"Azerbaijan creating pretexts for the resumption of war." Opinion from Yerevan
Probability of an Armenia-Azerbaijan war
In parallel with the blocking of the Lachin corridor in Armenia, the Armenian Defense Ministry reports that after midnight, Azerbaijani units opened fire in the direction of Armenian positions near the village of Kutakan, Gegharkunik region.
Meanwhile, Baku has been regularly accusing Armenia of shelling Azerbaijani positions in the eastern direction of the border. All such reports from Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan are immediately followed by denial from the Armenian side.
According to political scientist Gurgen Simonyan, Baku is trying to create the impression that “Azerbaijan is being subjected to aggression by Armenia, so they take retaliatory steps.”
According to the Armenian Ministry of Defense, on December 20 at about 00:05 units of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces opened fire in the direction of Armenian positions located near the village of Kutakan:
“There are no losses on the Armenian side. As of 09:00, the situation on the front line is relatively stable.”
On December 15 the Armenian Defense Ministry also reported on shelling from the Azerbaijani side. Then it was reported that the Azerbaijani military opened fire from small arms of various calibers in the direction of the villages of Norabak (Gegharkunik region) and Srashen (Syunik region).
Almost daily last week there were reports from Baku that the Armenian military was shelling Azerbaijani positions in the eastern, northeastern and southeastern sections of the border.
A comment
According to political scientist Gurgen Simonyan, Baku’s “aggressive actions” in the Lachin corridor and on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border are aimed at “creating grounds” for the resumption of a large-scale war.
“The most salient reason may be that allegedly Azerbaijan is being subjected to aggression by Armenia, so they took retaliatory steps. But we see that it is not possible to create this impression,” Simonyan told JAMnews.
According to Simonyan, the aggravation that occurs against the background of the events in Nagorno-Karabakh is directly related to Armenia’s security infrastructure:
“The blockade of the Lachin corridor can be seen as a proxy war against Armenia, an attempt to speak the language of blackmail and pursue a policy of genocide.”
According to Simonyan, the war has not ended; the “hot phase” was suspended in November 2020, and there was an attempt to return to it in September of this year, but the swift intervention of the West did not allow it to continue.
“Now the phase of hybrid war has already begun. There will be attempts at blackmail, intimidation, information attacks and psychological warfare to advance their military-political interests in the region at the expense of the national interests of Armenia,” he said.
Commenting on Armenia’s security, Gurgen Simonyan says that it was destroyed after the 2020 Karabakh war and has not been restored. He believes that the presence of EU monitors on the Armenian border helped delay the war, but it is necessary to soberly assess the situation. Simonyan believes that it is necessary to clearly understand that the main guarantor of security, territorial integrity and independence of Armenia are its own armed forces:
“No one, except our armed forces, will perform these functions. The rest can try to maintain a balance, act as mediators and allies, but not guarantors.”
According to him, the Russian peacekeepers stationed in Nagorno-Karabakh are performing mere observation; they are simply dressed in military uniforms.
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Probability of an Armenia-Azerbaijan war
