19.09.2022

What caused the Armenia-Azerbaijan border war of September 13-14? Six versions

Anahit Baghdasaryan

Yerevan

Causes of war on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border

I have a habit of listening to both sides, but in some things there aren’t just two sides, but many; and occasionally it’s all sides – effectively the entire world.

In this case, we have four sides within Armenian society and four sides within Azerbaijani society.

On the night of September 13, massive shelling and skirmishing began on the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The parties agreed to a ceasefire on the evening of the next day. Currently, the deaths of 135 Armenian soldiers and 75 Azerbaijani soldiers have been officially announced. Armenia claims it was an attack by Azerbaijan, and several Western politicians have expressed support for this version of events. Azerbaijan denies it and says it was in response to Armenian provocations.

There is little doubt, including for me, that the causes of war on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border boil down to Azerbaijan’s initiative, and specifically Aliyev’s. On this point all four “parties” are nearly unanimous. Only the interpretations differ.

Camp number one – Pashinyan alone is to blame. There is an Armenian opposition faction with Azerbaijan sympathizers and an Azerbaijani pro-government majority.

For some, because Pashinyan is “weak” and rolls over without a fight, failing to fulfill the conditions of the 2020 agreement.

Some accuse him of being “Turkish”, while others accuse him of being “Russian” or even “Western”, because he does not surrender peacefully and thereby provokes the iron fist of Mr. Aliyev.

Camp number two – Putin is to blame. There are Armenians and Azerbaijanis who believe that all this is the work of Russia and Putin’s agents, since Russia’s role in the region can only stand to increase.

The main versions circulating in both societies are:

1.Force a corridor through Armenia, which the latter will not control

Putin and Aliyev want to put pressure on Pashinyan, who refuses to comply with “corridor logic”, according to which the Russian FSB will in effect control a corridor through the territory of Armenia.

2. Aliyev needs to strengthen his position in Azerbaijan

Aliyev needs a corridor since this is a matter of internal authority. Azerbaijani society’s main criticism of Aliyev are: why, after the 44-day war in the fall of 2020, did he stop halfway and provide the Armenian population with the Lachin corridor and let the Russian contingent into Karabakh?

3.Russia needs to abandon the road through Georgia and control Armenia

This may be the price for Russia’s non-intervention in the conflict. Moscow definitely needs this corridor under the control of its special services. There are several possibilities:

● To bypass the only land route through seemingly unfriendly Georgia;

● For alternative communication with Armenia, Turkey and Iran;

● For even more control over the unpredictable Pashinyan government with its often inconsistent actions and statements.

Pashinyan’s unpredictability

Pashinyan’s unpredictability is an important factor. He may, for example, decide to buy cheaper gas from Iran, or to mine metals at the deposit in Syunik on their own. Or even invite Western companies over, instead of giving contracts to Russians.

4. Prevent Aliyev from selling Azerbaijani gas to the West

Another version is that Pashinyan and Putin decided to provoke Aliyev so that he would not be able to sell gas to the West, bypassing Russia. The agreement between Azerbaijan and the European Union will go into effect in 2025. But Moscow would need to start working against him today.

Aliyev decided that the best way to resist blackmail from Moscow and Yerevan was to launch a preemptive strike on military installations inside Armenia, in Vardenis, Jermuk and in the Syunik region.

And, of course, at the same time, version number one also applies here: to carve out a corridor through the territory of Armenia by force.

5. Azerbaijan and its claim to historical lands in Armenia

There is a popular idea in Azerbaijan of the return of their historical territory, unfairly given to the Armenians by Lenin, they say.

This topic is omnipresent throughout the post-Soviet realm.

In Azerbaijan this feeling of lost lands is reinforced by a feeling of national trauma after the first Karabakh war. Armenian society can definitely understand the feelings of Azerbaijani society in this, since it has suffered no fewer injuries.

6. Russia intends to be sole arbiter in the region

Russia does not want stability in the region until local players carry out all of its demands, above all recognition of Russia’s status as sole arbiter on the Karabakh issue.

A stable peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan would cast doubt on the presence of the Russian military here.

But Russia has neither the strength nor the interest to fight on a second front.

This makes it necessary to instigate one or the other, creating obstacles to achieving at least some success in the diplomatic field, especially anything out of Brussels.

Armenia’s weakness is of great help to Putin, as are Aliyev and his coterie, tied with Russia through various corrupt activities.

A “fifth column” in both countries is quite powerless. It includes all small groups that are divided not along national, but deological lines. There are pacifists, leftists and anarchists who consider war for territories and nationalist propaganda a means of enslaving the masses to enrich the elites.

The main conclusion is that the elites and Western leaders who cover for them are to blame.

Causes of war on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border

All versions lead to one conclusion: Aliyev and Pashinyan are to blame, with complicity from Putin, and Eastern and Western forces backing these elites.

Aliyev, through anti-Armenian propaganda and parasitization on the national trauma of Azerbaijanis after the first Karabakh war, holds onto power through escalations, intimidation and persecution of dissidents.

Pashinyan, who came to power on a wave of popular will, eventually chickened out and did nothing to avoid war in 2020. He shattered hopes for a peaceful settlement with his careless nationalist statements and tough guy posturing.

How Putin is involved does not even require explication.

And the West is to blame owing to its passive role in resolving the conflict. The West did not react to serious violations of human rights inside both countries – either in exchange for gas, or because these are all Russian lands and they are left to sort it out themselves.

About those who passively support the war

There are those in both countries who choose a safe position so as not to incur accusations of betrayal or stupidity.

They collect humanitarian aid, even if it is not needed.
Disseminate official information – only “their” side.
They put praying hands in the comments and distribute photos of dead soldiers (for their part).

They have no conflict with either “their own” or “enemies”. On the one hand, they only post socially acceptable content. On the other hand, they do not come into contact with the other side in any way, they are not interested in alternative versions.

The phrase “Now we are not talking about the disputed territory, but about the sovereign territory of Armenia”, often published in the Armenian media and social media, sounds cynical.

Why has the narrative acquired this nuance? Before it was disputed territory; now it’s sovereign territory.

No, I did not quarrel with Azerbaijani friends

We are adults, we know the war is not over and it will most likely last our entire lives. We also know that our desire for peace is unshakable, even if we look at the situation from different angles.

I am ready, just as before, that the men of my family will head off to the front. Not because they are thirsty for blood, but because this is the only way for them to protect their families. The world around us dictates this scenario.

I won’t give up my principles. I am ready to continue to defend my right to my opinion.

I condemn the aggression of Azerbaijan, led by the Aliyev regime, now and during the second Karabakh war in 2020.

And I condemn the aggression of Armenia in previous years, which unequivocally influenced what is now happening before our eyes.

I don’t know what to expect. I’m scared, and I see it all as a dead end.

Causes of war on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border