Opinion: What lies behind the Kremlin's compliments to Georgia

Russian-Georgian relations

What does Russia aim to achieve in Georgia? Moscow is attempting to regain influence over Ukraine through force, while it extends offers of “peace” and economic support to Georgia.

Moscow is increasingly discussing the possibility of resuming flights with Georgia, as evinced by numerous statements. Most recently, Grigory Karasin, the head of the Committee of the Council of the Russian Federation on International Affairs, spoke on the topic, saying that Moscow is ready but Tbilisi is still hesitating.

Before that, at a press conference held on January 18, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov summed up the work of the Russian diplomatic service in 2022 and among other things spoke in great detail about Georgia.

He praised the work of the Georgian authorities and called the decision of Tbilisi not to join the sanctions against Russia “courageous”.

Lavrov also recalled Georgia’s double-digit economic growth and said that “the fact that Georgia’s GDP increased by 10% last year is largely the result of tourism and trade relations with the Russian Federation.”

At the same briefing, Lavrov said that it would be good to resume direct flights between Russia and Georgia, interrupted in 2019 on the initiative of the Russian Federation.

The content of Lavrov’s statement and the possibility of resuming flights was seen by many in Georgia as a wake-up call and turning point in Georgia’s international positioning.

The development of relations between Russia and Georgia post-invasion of Ukraine

Since the start of the war in Ukraine, the tone of the Kremlin’s statements regarding Georgia has become distinctly constructive. Moscow emphasizes that Georgia did not succumb to the provocations of the West and did not get involved in the war.

For example, in March of last year when Kyiv was under Russian siege, Karasin approved of Tbilisi’s low-key stance, and he noted for the public that non-alignment with anti-Russian sanctions “would not go unnoticed” by Moscow.

Even Russian Duma deputy Sergei Gavrilov, who caused Russia to unilaterally stop flights to Georgia on July 8, 2019, could not hide his admiration for Tbilisi’s foreign policy. “Taking into account the position of Georgia on Ukraine and the sanctions against Russia, it is advisable to restore not only air traffic, but also diplomatic relations between our countries,” Gavrilov said.

Official Tbilisi is trying to react with restraint to positive signals coming from Moscow. However, it is becoming increasingly difficult for the Georgian government to maintain this balance. The ruling Georgian Dream party is already openly perceived as pursuing pro-Russian interests both within the country and by Georgia’s international friends.

For example, in response to Lavrov’s comment, ruling party chairman Irakli Kobakhidze welcomed the possible resumption of flights, at a time when Georgia’s European partners, on the contrary, have closed the skies to Russian aircraft.

Despite calls from the opposition and civic activists, Prime Minister Garibashvili has never been to Kyiv, as other European leaders have done, because, according to him, going to Kyiv for a support visit “doesn’t do anything.”

Nor did the prime minister’s office not respond to the rocket attack on a residential building in Dnipro, which killed fifty civilians.

All this indicates that Georgia’s largely valueless foreign and security policy is trying to distance itself from Western foreign policy trends and European solidarity.

Georgian Dream assures its constituents that it is in the interests of the country to separate from the international context. With such a policy, Georgia will be able to avoid war and have a better chance of resolving territorial and other problems, the government argues.

It seems that Moscow, which is trying to regain influence over Ukraine with fire and brimstone, is trying to gain influence over Georgia through “peace” and economic support.

But is Georgia’s economic growth really owing to Russia, as Lavrov claims?

According to the latest Saxstat data, in 2022 Georgia has indeed seen double-digit economic growth and an increase in trade between Georgia and Russia.

However, Russian citizens fleeing Putin’s policies, rather than “tourists” as Lavrov claims, have made a more significant contribution to this economic growth.

It was the influx of tens of thousands of Russian citizens fleeing sanctions and mobilization that led to the consumer boom and economic stimulus.

But while Georgia’s closest partner and friend, Ukraine, repels Russian cruise and ballistic missile attacks on a daily basis, boasting about economic growth is extremely uncomfortable.

Pro-Russian forces in Georgia

At Lavrov’s press conference, Alt-Info, a strongly pro-Russian Georgian media group that actively conducts targeted hate campaigns against ethnic and sexual minorities, as well as the West, received the main question at the press conference. The Alt-Info group took part in the riots on July 5, 2021, during which dozens of journalists and human rights activists were seriously injured.

The use of alternative information gives us an idea of how Moscow relies on and cooperates with forces in Georgia, and indicates that the Russian Federation is directly or indirectly interested in promoting violence in Georgia, inciting hatred, and in everything that undermines the fragile civil harmony and peace in our country.

In his extensive commentary, Lavrov also spoke of “immoral, perverse culture and values” coming from the West. He expressed great respect for the Georgian Orthodox Church and separately noted its special contribution to the protection of traditional values.

This comment indicates that one of the Kremlin’s main allies in Georgia is the church. It is obvious that Moscow will strive for a stronger alliance with the Georgian Church, because it knows very well what influence the church has on the social and political life of Georgia.

________________

Based on all this, it is obvious that Russia’s goal is not to normalize relations with Tbilisi and expand trade ties. It will look for a stronger ideological foothold in Georgia.

On this path, Moscow is likely to increase pressure on the ruling political power of Georgia, so that the latter better adapts to the new Moscow reality in face of confrontation with the West.