Extraordinary presidential election scheduled in Azerbaijan. Politicians on the reasons for the decision
Presidential election in Azerbaijan
Ilham Aliyev unexpectedly and without explanation signed an order to schedule an extraordinary presidential election in Azerbaijan for February 7, 2024. What forced the authorities to schedule the election 15 months ahead of schedule? Possible reasons for this decision are given by politicians Azer Gasimli and Natik Jafarli.
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Director of the Institute of Political Management Azer Gasimli
The appointment of the presidential election 15 months ahead of his term means, first of all, that the head of state is not calm either about himself or the consequences.
This year’s economic growth was the lowest among all CIS countries. The social chasm in the country is deepening and social tension is growing. The victory in Karabakh could not be turned into development. The issue has only become an excuse for a temporary increase in legitimacy and public support.
There was no foreign policy card left in the hands of the Aliyev government that could be used in domestic politics. The Karabakh issue was the last such card, and it has already been used. The main thing is that in 2025 the Russian military contingent will not leave the territory of our country. And this will further reduce the legitimacy of the authorities.
And the main factor that influenced the decision and this whole process, in my opinion, is the deterioration of relations with the West, the United States. It is noteworthy that US Assistant Secretary of State James O’Brien arrives in Baku and Ilham Aliyev signs the order in a hurry. In all likelihood, the trend of moving away from the West will continue because the Aliyev government has made a choice in favor of Russia. Meanwhile, the press statement published by Azertaj agency was in the style of Goebbels. I do not exclude clashes on the border between Azerbaijan and Armenia.
Taking into account the repression of the last months and what I have said above, the tension inside the country will grow, and this means new threats to the authorities.
Natik Jafarli, one of the leaders of the Republican Alternative (ReAl) party
Why an extraordinary presidential election were announced – probably many people are interested in the answer to this question, I will write my guesses.
- The events of the last three years, the restoration of territorial integrity and sovereignty are great achievements. Azerbaijan is the only country in the post-Soviet space that has achieved such success. Historical events that will be inscribed in our history in golden letters and naturally Ilham Aliyev, as commander-in-chief, has an exceptional role in this matter. In his 20-year period of leading the country, Aliyev has never been so popular, his rating has never been so high – according to the theory of politics, at the peak of their popularity, politicians go to elections to “renew confidence”. In this sense, the decision is logical.
- Another reason is that the country’s economic picture is rapidly deteriorating. This year GDP growth in Azerbaijan amounted to only 0.5%, which actually means recession. With the current team and the existing management system, the economic picture will continue to deteriorate and this will be felt even more openly at the end of next year. Therefore, Aliyev wants to extend his power for the next 7 years without waiting for an even worse economic picture.
- Elections will be held in Russia next March, in the United States in November, and in some important European countries during the year. The pre-election period always means a factor of uncertainty, and therefore Aliyev, by appointing elections on the eve of all these events, insures himself and the country against possible events in other countries.
- The year 2025 is formally the last year for Russian “peacekeepers” in our country. Elections at a time when the question of whether to keep them in the country or expel them could be accompanied by problems. For this reason, by holding early elections it is possible to discuss the issue of expulsion of the RCC from the territory of the country in a calm atmosphere.
- A positive expectation is that immediately after the presidential elections, a referendum may be announced, which will constitutionally solve the systemic, fundamental problems that we have been talking about for years. Before the referendum, it may be necessary to secure insurance for the next 7 years, which is what Aliyev did.
Despite all this, political parties in various forms should take part in the election process. To stay on the sidelines, to boycott elections is a senseless and harmful step – history has repeatedly proved this. Participation in elections also has various forms, experienced and thinking political parties and politicians can find the most optimal formulas for participation. We are working on these formulas, and I am sure that we will choose the most correct one. Political parties must first learn to choose the right steps to eventually win elections, this is also experience, an important condition.
