“We cannot intervene”: head of EU mission on a possible offensive by Azerbaijani Armed Forces
Possible escalation on the Armenian border
In view of frequent statements by the Armenian authorities about the threat of a new escalation from Azerbaijan, Markus Ritter, the head of the EU observation mission which monitors the Armenian-Azerbaijani border said: “Many Armenians believe that Azerbaijan will start hostilities in the spring.” The Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry immediately reacted, stating that Ritter’s words are based on “false and slanderous allegations by Armenia.”
Armenian experts also regularly warn of the danger of military escalation, although they believe that the risks are “currently lower” due to the changing geopolitical situation.
“If Azerbaijan does not launch an offensive in the spring, then the EU mission is successful”
In an interview with Deutsche Welle, Markus Ritter says the monitoring mission can be considered successful if Azerbaijan does not start hostilities in the coming months.
Ritter also talked about the likelihood of an offensive by the Azerbaijani armed forces in the spring, although he presented this as the opinion of “many Armenians.”
Regarding the monitoring mission, he said the observers cannot enter the territory of Azerbaijan, therefore they cannot record the movement of troops preparing for an offensive.
“And we can’t interfere. We only have binoculars and cameras at our disposal,” Ritter explained.
“We strongly condemn this” – Baku’s response
Aykhan Hajizade, spokesman for the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry, criticized Ritter’s statement:
“The head of the EU civil mission, based on the false and slanderous allegations of the Armenian side, expressed the opinion that Azerbaijan was allegedly preparing for an attack, and presented the main task of the EU mission as “protecting Armenia from Azerbaijan.” We have repeatedly stressed the need to prevent abuses of this mission aimed at undermining the process of normalizing relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia.”
“An environment where it is no longer safe to live” – Speaker of Parliament
“The Armenian authorities want to change the quality of relations in the region, in an environment where it is far from safe for us to live,” the speaker of the Armenian parliament said during a meeting at the Friedrich Naumann Foundation in Germany. Alen Simonyan confirmed that Armenia, despite everything, continues to adhere to the agenda of “establishing an era of peace” in the region.
Earlier, the Armenian Foreign Ministry announced the likelihood that Azerbaijan would resort to “large-scale use of force both against the sovereign territory of the Republic of Armenia and against Nagorno-Karabakh.” The statement said that “all partners interested in stability and peace in the region” should take active steps to exclude manifestations of the use of force by Azerbaijan.
“The US, Europe and Iran are a deterrent for Baku”
Political scientist Gurgen Simonyan believes that the likelihood of a new escalation has been very high since the signing in November 2020 of a tripartite statement on the cessation of hostilities in Karabakh.
“There is always the possibility of a resumption of hostilities because there is no peace agreement and Azerbaijan has not abandoned its previous policy, but these risks are lower than in 2021 and 2022,” he told JAMnews.
According to Simonyan, the geopolitical reality has changed, and the Armenian Armed Forces are in a better condition than immediately after the war. He also believes that Azerbaijan is unlikely to want to go against the civilized world, which opposes war:
“Azerbaijan can get the status of a state that promotes and supports terrorism, the same as that given to Russia.”
According to Simonyan, the United States, Europe and Iran can act as deterrent factors for Baku.
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Possible escalation on the Armenian border
