Opinion: 'Russia has far more leverage over Armenia than over Moldova'
EU to help Armenia counter hybrid threats
“Armenia has elections coming and we will discuss what can we do to help them. They have asked similar help to fight the foreign malign influence, like we granted to Moldova,” said EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas. She also recently announced that the EU would allocate €15 million to Armenia to strengthen its resilience. Part of this funding will support efforts to counter hybrid threats and disinformation.
Commenting on the statement by the EU’s top diplomat, Armenia’s Economy Minister Gevorg Papoyan confirmed the risk of hybrid attacks and cyber threats targeting the country.
“Democracy has the right to defend itself. To do so, it needs money and the necessary capacity. It must also have the required expertise and act firmly and in a targeted manner when the moment comes,” the minister said.
He did not specify which country poses hybrid threats to Armenia. However, local analysts have long warned about cyber threats, disinformation, and manipulation originating from Russia ahead of the parliamentary elections scheduled for 2026.
Political analyst Areg Kochinyan believes that Russia has far greater leverage in Armenia than in Moldova, where elections recently took place.
“This includes both clearly ‘bought’ political figures and forces, as well as direct tools such as various media outlets, charitable foundations, and organisations,” he said. “All of this increases their chances of success. Armenia must take state-level measures to strengthen its resilience,” Kochinyan stressed.
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‘We must protect our state from hybrid attacks‘
“Hybrid attacks against Armenia are certainly possible,” the economy minister said. “They include attempts to undermine our democracy and influence elections through fake news or voter bribery. Certain groups with billions of dollars at their disposal may be behind such efforts. Attacks may also come from specific countries that deliberately work to prevent free and democratic elections and a government chosen by the people in Armenia.”
According to Gevorg Papoyan, every country has a sovereign right to defend itself and the interests of its people.
“It is entirely natural to protect our democracy and our state from such attacks,” he said.
Journalists then asked the minister to clarify which country was waging a hybrid war against Armenia.
“I did not name any country or any region,” Papoyan replied. “But democracy not only has the right to defend itself. It also has a duty to do so when it faces an attack from any country or region, or from any individual. This includes former officials or oligarchs who arrive from abroad and try to influence elections in Armenia through fraud, voter bribery, the spread of fake news, or attacks on democracy.”
Papoyan added that EU countries have accumulated successful experience in countering various types of hybrid attacks. He said Armenia could also apply this experience.
Political analyst’s commentary
According to political analyst Areg Kochinian, Russia poses the greatest long-term threat to Armenia when it comes to preserving the country’s sovereignty.
“Regardless of whether we diversify our foreign policy or try to normalise relations with Azerbaijan, we will face pressure from Russia. Moscow’s ultimate goal for Armenia does not align with our desire to build an independent, modern state. Russia wants Armenia to become part of Russia, following the example of Tatarstan,” he said.
Kochinian argues that Armenia’s strongest dependence on Russia lies in the security sphere. He says economic dependence follows from this security reliance rather than causing it. To address the problem, he proposes normalising relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey. He believes this would make it possible to build a “modern and successful Armenia”.
The political analyst believes that the 2026 parliamentary elections will be the most important in the history of independent Armenia when it comes to the country’s future.
“If nothing changes in the balance of power and ambitions among political forces, and if a third pole fails to emerge as a real alternative, this will effectively become a choice. It will be a choice between a democratic and a non-democratic future. It will also be a choice between building peace or rejecting it, and between diversifying foreign policy or complete subordination to Russia,” he said.
Commenting on parallels between Armenia and Moldova, Kochinian noted that Moldova managed to withstand Russian interference. At the same time, he stressed that Russia does not have the same level of capacity in Moldova as it does in Armenia. He pointed both to influence over political forces and to propaganda tools, including media outlets, foundations and other structures.
“I do not yet see any serious measures aimed at strengthening Armenia’s resilience. Instead, everyone seems to rely on society’s resilience alone. But public awareness and maturity should be the last line of defence in this struggle,” he said.
Areg Kochinian also rejects the idea that democracy cannot defend itself or lacks the tools for self-protection.
“There are examples in Romania, Moldova, the Baltic states and Poland. These countries face the full range of hybrid tools and sustained pressure. Yet they still manage to resist,” he said.
EU to help Armenia counter hybrid threats
