Heads of the foreign ministries of Armenia and Azerbaijan will meet in Berlin. Forecasts from Yerevan
Meeting Mirzoyan-Bayramov in Berlin
On February 28-29, a meeting of the foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan is scheduled to take place in Berlin. The meeting is organized in accordance with the agreements reached during the trilateral meeting between Pashinyan, Aliyev, and Scholz in Munich, reported the press secretary of the Armenian foreign ministry.
Armenian experts do not have serious expectations from these negotiations. They consider them as “implementation of the Azerbaijani agenda” and assume that direct negotiations without intermediaries are planned, and the Chancellor of Germany will only act as a moderator.
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“Decision made to resume the process”
The meeting between Nikol Pashinyan and Ilham Aliyev took place on February 17 in Munich within the framework of the security conference. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz also participated in the negotiations. There was no joint statement following the meeting.
During the trilateral meeting, discussions focused on the settlement of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations and the assurance of peace and stability in the region, as reported by the office of the Armenian prime minister. Additionally, the parties agreed to continue working on a peace treaty.
Afterward, Nikol Pashinyan announced the upcoming meeting of foreign ministers. However, he did not specify whether it would take place in Germany.
“In Munich […] a decision was made to resume the process, and in the near future, negotiations with the Armenian delegation are planned to discuss the peace agreement,” said Azerbaijani foreign minister Jeyhun Bayramov the day before.
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The president of Azerbaijan has already stated: “Armenia must understand that the only way is to accept all of Azerbaijan’s conditions,” reminds political observer Akop Badalyan.
Meanwhile, foreign minister Jeyhun Bayramov, as claimed by the observer, critically assessed the statements on the Munich agreements.
“What will be discussed in Berlin, based on the statements coming from Azerbaijan? How balanced can these discussions be?” – Akop Badalyan wonders.
He emphasizes that the most important prerequisite for establishing peace is a balance between the conflicting parties. And if there isn’t one, then “the balance must be provided by countries acting as mediators.” According to the expert, “neither of these is present at the moment.” And even the United States, in his assessment, has refrained from active mediation.
“It seems that Baku has achieved its desired outcome – direct negotiations,” believes political analyst Suren Sureniants.
He concludes that there will be “no mediators” from the statement of the Azerbaijani foreign minister about “a meeting with the Armenian delegation.”
“The fact that the meeting will take place in Berlin only indicates that Berlin will at most have the status of a facilitator, which means there can be no talk of mediation,” he stressed.
The political analyst notes that if the meeting is without mediators, then the question of which country provides the platform for negotiations becomes irrelevant.
Yerevan’s refusal to participate in this meeting was unlikely, as Baku threatens military escalation, says Sureniants:
“In recent days, Azerbaijan has been spreading fake news that the Armenian side allegedly violated the ceasefire regime. In addition, we received information that yesterday the Azerbaijani Il-76 plane landed in Israel. Apparently, they are receiving new weaponry.
So, Baku is very clear – either we hold negotiations in this format and with this agenda, or we resort to a new escalation.“
Sureniants believes that negotiations without mediators further strengthen Baku’s position. At the same time, the expert adds that even if there are mediators, “Yerevan’s maneuvering opportunities are very limited.“
Overall, Sureniants concludes that Azerbaijan intends to extract concessions from Armenia on all contentious issues:
“Prime Minister Pashinyan is waiting for some miracles. […] And Aliyev’s task is not to sign a peace agreement, but to declare his goals, legitimize them, strengthen his positions, and create a deadlock situation for Armenia.“
