"The West is increasing pressure on Baku". Opinion on the resolution of the French Senate
French Senate on sanctions
The French Senate has adopted a resolution condemning the “military invasion of Azerbaijan” on the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. The vote was 336 in favor and 1 against. The document also emphasizes the inadmissibility of violating Armenia’s territorial integrity and calls for “immediate withdrawal of Azerbaijani troops” from its sovereign territory.
The resolution proposes the French government apply sanctions against Azerbaijan and discuss with European partners “the most decisive response measures”. In particular, it is a question of confiscating the funds of the Azerbaijani leadership and imposing an embargo on imports of Azerbaijani gas and oil.
Political scientist Robert Ghevondyan believes that France demonstrates and realizes the position of the collective West. The West assumes “step-by-step strengthening of pressure on Baku”. That is, the adoption of the resolution by the French Senate does not mean that any concrete measures will be taken against Azerbaijan now. In his opinion, the resolution should be seen as an attempt to return Azerbaijan to a constructive field.
“Ensure the right of the Armenian population to return to Nagorno-Karabakh”
The French Senate believes that the international community is obliged to make efforts to ensure the right of Armenians to return to their homeland, to obtain from Azerbaijan guarantees for their security.
The resolution of January 17 condemns the military actions of Azerbaijan on September 19 and 20, 2023. They, as the document says, led to “the expulsion of almost the entire Armenian population living there”.
The document states that the right of peoples to self-determination extends to the Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh, and respect for this right “is the only possible path to a stable peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia”.
It also condemns the “arbitrary arrest of the political leaders of Nagorno-Karabakh, the legitimate representatives of the people” living in the territory. The French Senate called for their immediate release.
Warning on the intentions of Azerbaijan and Turkey
French parliamentarians warn the French government, the European Union and the entire international community of the threat to Armenia’s territorial integrity from Azerbaijan and its ally Turkey.
The resolution says that the Senate supports Armenia’s right to have arms to ensure its security and welcomes the French government’s decision to supply the country with military equipment.
The document also addresses the following appeals to the French government:
- “to recognize all diplomatic consequences of Azerbaijan’s numerous aggressive actions against Armenia;
- to discuss with European partners the issue of a complete review of the EU relations with Azerbaijan, as well as the confiscation of the Azerbaijani leadership’s funds and the embargo on gas and oil imports from Azerbaijan;
- to make efforts for Azerbaijan to immediately and peacefully engage through diplomatic channels in the negotiation process for the establishment of stable peace in the South Caucasus”.
Baku’s reaction
In response to the decision of the French Senate, the Azerbaijani parliament adopted a statement calling on the Azerbaijani government to impose sanctions on France.
The MPs of the Milli Majlis demanded
- “freeze any assets of French officials if they are found in Azerbaijan,
- suspend all economic ties with France,
- expel all French companies, including [the major oil and gas company] Total, from Azerbaijan,
- not to allow French companies to participate in projects realized by order of the Azerbaijani state”.
Expert opinion
In the opinion of political scientist Robert Ghevondyan, one should not expect practical steps after every resolution or statement. He believes that the resolution adopted is just an attempt to return Azerbaijan to a constructive direction.
“If Baku returns to the negotiation process, makes statements with compromise logic on some issues, starts participating in meetings on Western platforms, this process will be somewhat suspended. And it is possible that we will even notice the opposite trend.”
In his commentary for JAMnews, Ghevondyan said that France’s actions are dictated not only by the interests of Paris, but also by the interests of the West as a whole.
The political analyst does not rule out that in the near future other EU countries, as well as the United States, will use similar “instruments of pressure”.
As for the emphasis in the resolution on the inadmissibility of violating Armenia’s territorial integrity, Ghevondyan suggests that the Europeans are thus “trying to prevent possible aggression on the part of Azerbaijan, as well as to draw the world’s attention to the problems of the region”.
He emphasizes that France has its own interests there, in transport logistics and other areas, which at this stage it realizes through Armenia.
The statement of the Milli Majlis of Azerbaijan, according to the analyst, was an expected reaction. But in case of escalation of relations Azerbaijan will lose more than France.
Robert Ghevondyan does not rule out that Baku’s harsh rhetoric towards Armenia and the international community is conditioned by the upcoming snap elections here, i.e. the desire to gain more votes:
“It is quite possible that after the elections, when Aliyev will be re-elected with sufficient legitimacy, the approach will be quite different. For example, Azerbaijan will easily return to a constructive direction, which will soften relations between Azerbaijan and France.”
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French Senate on sanctions
