Pre-election polls in Georgia: ruling party tops the ratings but loses supporters
Pre-election polls in Georgia
Two opposition TV channels in Georgia published the results of public opinion polls ahead of the October 2 municipal elections. Both polls show that the ruling Georgian Dream party is in the lead, followed by the main opposition party, United National Movement, and third by the new party of former Prime Minister Giorgi Gakharia.
Edison Research Survey
The reputable international research company Edison Research conducted a public opinion poll commissioned by Formula TV five days before the elections, according to which 36% of the population would vote for the ruling Georgian Dream party and 27% for the United National Movement.
Fieldwork was conducted between 12-25 September. 1,500 people were interviewed by the method of personal interviews. The polling error is +/- 3% at the 95% confidence level.
According to a survey by Edison Research, party ratings were distributed as follows:
- Georgian Dream – 36%
- United National Movement – 27%
- Giorgi Gakharia – for Georgia – 11%
- Labor Party – 4%
- Lelo – 4%
- Zurab Japaridze – Girchi – More Freedom – 4%
- European Georgia – 2%
- Girchi – 2%
- Strategy Agmashenebeli – 2%
- Alliance of Patriots – 2%
- Elena Khoshtaria – Droa – 1%
- Anna Dolidze – “For the people” – 1%
- Citizens – 1%
- Others – 3%
When asked how confident they were in their choice, the answers were distributed as follows:
84% of Georgian Dream supporters are confident in their choice and will definitely vote for this party; 16% of respondents are not sure;
89% of the supporters of the United National Movement are confident in their choice, 11% are not sure;
76% of the party’s supporters are confident in their choice in favor of Georgia, 24% are not.
According to a poll by Edison Research, to the question – “If the elections for the mayor of Tbilisi took place today, who would you vote for?” – Candidate support was distributed as follows:
- Kakha Kaladze – 43%
- Nika Melia – 30%
- Giorgi Gakharia – 12%
- Anna Dolidze – 6%
- Anna Bibilashvili – 3%
- Others – 6%
According to an Edison Research poll, 92% of the population will “definitely” or “probably” vote in local elections:
- 76% will “certainly” take part in the elections,
- 16% are likely to vote.
- 3% will “definitely not participate” in the elections.
- 3% “are unlikely to vote”.
The research organization also found out the approval rating of politicians, where the first two places are occupied by the incumbent mayor of Tbilisi Kakha Kaladze and former Prime Minister Giorgi Gakharia:
- Kakha Kaladze – 55% (refers “negatively” – 45%)
- Georgy Gakharia – 49% (“negative” – 51%)
- David Bakradze – 48% (“negative” – 52%)
- Ana Dolidze – 47% (“negative” – 53%)
- Nika Melia – 45% (“negative” – 55%)
- Irakli Garibashvili – 44% (“negative” 56%)
- Shalva Natelashvili – 41% (negative 59%)
- Bidzina Ivanishvili – 40% (“negative” 60%)
- Elena Khoshtaria – 40% (“negative” 60%)
- Khatia Dekanoidze – 40% (“negative” 60%)
- Mikhail Saakashvili 38% (“negative” 62%)
- Giorgi Vashadze 38% (“negative” 62%)
- Salome Zurabishvili 37% (“negative” 63%)
- Irakli Kobakhidze 36% (“negative” 64%)
Answering the question – “If the elections were held today, who would you vote for?” were distributed by age categories (18-24 and voters over 65) as follows:
“Georgian Dream” is supported by 27% of the population aged 18 to 24, and the opposition is supported by 73%;
Of the population over 65, 48% support Georgian Dream and 52% support the opposition.
There is another interesting conclusion that the Edison Research study made. It turns out that 12% of those who voted for the Georgian Dream in the 2020 parliamentary elections support the Gakharia party in these elections.
4% of supporters of the “Georgian Dream” in the last year’s elections are now ready to vote for the National Movement, 2% – for the Laborites and 2% – for “Lelo”. 74% of last year’s supporters of the Georgian Dream still support the ruling party.
As for the party ratings in Tbilisi, it looks like this:
- Georgian Dream – 32%
- United National Movement – 23%
- “Giorgi Gakharia – for Georgia” – 12%
- “Zurab Japaridze -” Girchi “- more freedom” – 9%
- Lelo – 4%
- “Girchi – Yago Khvichia” – 4%
- Droa – 3%
- “Anna Dolidze – For the people” – 3%
- Labor Party – 3%
- Alliance of Patriots – 2%
- “The third force is the strategy of Agnmashenebeli” – 1%
- “Citizens” – 1%
- Others – 3%
According to a study by Edison Research, when asked “who would you vote for if local elections were held in your city today? “- the answers were distributed as follows:
- Georgian Dream candidate – 43%
- United opposition candidate – 39%
- Candidate from the “Gakharia – for Georgia” party – 18%
According to the study, 68% of the population believe that the country is developing in the wrong direction, and only 32% think that in the right direction.
IPSOS poll
The French company IPSOS, commissioned by the Mtavari Archi TV channel, conducted a poll, according to which the answers to the question of whom they would vote for if local elections were held next week were distributed as follows:
- “Georgian Dream” – 35%
- United National Movement – 30%
- “For Georgia [Giorgi Gakharia]” – 9%
- “European Georgia” – 4%
- “For the people” – 4%
- Lelo – 3%
- “Third Force” – 3%
- Labor Party – 3%
- “Girchi – More Freedom” – 2%
- Alliance of Patriots – 2%
- Droa – 1%
- “Citizens” – 1%
- Other lots – 3%
When asked which candidate for mayor of Tbilisi you would vote for if local elections were held tomorrow, the results were distributed as follows:
- Kakha Kaladze – 41%
- Nika Melia – 36%
- Giorgi Gakharia – 13%
- Anna Dolidze – 4%
- Anna Bibilashvili – 2%
Between September 21-25, IPSOS interviewed 1,500 randomly selected eligible respondents through direct interviews. The data error is +/- 3%.
