Joining the EU with Russian troops? Will Moldova and Ukraine set a new precedent in Europe?
Moldova and Ukraine in the EU
For 33 years since gaining independence after the USSR’s collapse, Moldova and Ukraine have been moving towards Europe at different speeds. However, they’ve never been as close to EU membership as they are now. Ironically, the catalyst for this momentum has been Russian aggression against Ukraine, aimed at preventing the country from “turning to the West.”
In Moldova, the “anchor” holding it back for over 30 years has been Transnistria, a region under Russian influence. Can Moldova and Ukraine, with EU support, set a new precedent in Europe? Will the European future of these two countries remain hostage to conflicts created and fueled by Moscow?
In the past 20 years, no country with an ongoing conflict has become a full member of the EU. The last case was Cyprus, where EU membership did not resolve its territorial issue. Since then, Brussels has vowed not to repeat the “Cyprus precedent.”
Everything changed after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In March 2022, both Ukraine and Moldova applied for EU membership, swiftly obtained candidate status by that summer, and in December 2023, began accession talks, aiming to complete the process by 2030.
The logic is simple. Brussels realized that by blocking Moldova and Ukraine’s EU membership due to territorial issues, they were essentially encouraging Moscow’s strategy of creating and sustaining conflicts as leverage to keep these countries under Russian control.
For over 30 years, Moldova and Ukraine, like Georgia, have been “hostages” of Russia. Can Brussels, along with Moldova and Ukraine, strip Moscow of its influence and set a new precedent in Europe—integrating countries into the EU that Russia considers within its sphere of influence and interest?
Moldova: The next Cyprus?
Can Moldova join the EU with the breakaway region of Transnistria still beyond its control? This is one of the key questions surrounding Moldova’s European integration. EU Foreign Affairs Chief Josep Borrell and former Moldovan Foreign Minister Nicu Popescu believe it can, though not everyone shares their optimism.
European integration and the country’s reintegration have been two of Moldova’s most important national projects over the past decades. These processes are closely linked, though they haven’t always progressed in tandem—often, quite the opposite.
The failure to resolve the Transnistrian conflict under Russian mediation in the early 2000s was a key factor in Moldova’s pivot toward the West and the start of its European integration efforts.
Now that Moldova has a clear path toward European integration, the unresolved Transnistrian issue could become one of the most significant obstacles to joining the EU—or perhaps not.
During the European Political Community summit in Bulboaca, Moldova, in June 2023, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell made a striking statement: Moldova could join the EU even with an unresolved territorial conflict—similar to Cyprus.
Moldova aims to join the EU by 2030, a timeline many European politicians and officials deem realistic, though it’s only a target. The actual accession depends on two factors: how quickly Moldova completes its “homework” by aligning its laws and judicial system with EU standards, and whether the EU has the political will to admit both Moldova and Ukraine.
The war in Ukraine and the political climate in EU member states will heavily influence this process. The presence of an uncontrolled region or foreign troops on a country’s territory doesn’t fit the Copenhagen criteria for EU membership. Admitting a country under these conditions would require strong political consensus among EU members.
Former Moldovan Deputy Prime Minister for Reintegration Alexandru Flenchea argues against relying on the Cyprus example, emphasizing that resolving the conflict is a state’s responsibility to its citizens, and this issue should be resolved before joining the EU.
The primary challenge remains the presence of Russian soldiers in the region, with no clear plan for their withdrawal. As long as the war in Ukraine continues, Transnistria will pose a security threat.
Moldova is unlikely to join the EU without attempting to resolve the Transnistrian conflict, likely with help from the EU, the US, and Ukraine. However, it’s uncertain when or under what conditions this will happen—whether during or after the war in Ukraine—and whether it will succeed or fail like in Cyprus.
No one can guarantee Moldova’s EU accession if a settlement plan fails, as happened with Cyprus. However, it’s likely that Chișinău will need to attempt conflict resolution, start negotiations, and develop a viable settlement plan—not just for EU membership, but for the country’s future stability.
Ukraine: A determined path to Europe
On February 28, 2022, just four days after the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine officially applied for membership in the European Union. Within just four months, the EU granted Ukraine candidate status and issued seven recommendations to be fulfilled.
It seems that the onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion opened the doors of the European Union to Ukraine wider than in the previous eight years of hybrid warfare when the intensity of fighting was lower and the occupied territory was smaller. Paradoxically, the Kremlin, which sought to keep Ukraine within its sphere of influence, has only accelerated Ukraine’s path to European integration.
Experts believe that before February 2022, European leaders preferred a policy of appeasement towards Putin and were reluctant to make significant moves toward closer ties with Ukraine. However, the full-scale war changed everything, proving that this approach was mistaken. Ukraine has demonstrated itself as a state not only ready to resist the aggressor but also committed to continuing its path towards the European Union.
Currently, about 20 percent of Ukraine’s territory is occupied by Russia. Nevertheless, EU membership negotiations are ongoing, and European leaders consistently affirm that Ukraine’s place is in the EU.
Increasingly, people in Brussels and European capitals understand that Russia’s aggressive war should not impede Ukraine’s accession to the EU. This also sends a signal to Moscow: if they think that occupying parts of Ukraine will damage Ukraine’s access to the European Union, they are mistaken.
The main question is Ukraine itself, its will and readiness to carry out the necessary reforms and continue the negotiation process.
The Ukrainian government emphasizes that Ukraine will become a member of the European Union within its sovereign territories. European officials believe that the EU’s role is to provide Ukraine with military, political, and financial support to ensure that the war with Russia ends in victory and a just peace. This is important not only for Ukraine but also for the security of the whole of Europe.
Ukraine is currently in the negotiation process. After that, the European Commission must determine whether the negotiations have been successful and if Ukraine meets all the criteria. Then, a decision will be made on signing the Accession Agreement with the European Union.
Finally, there will be a positive vote from the parliaments of the EU member states. Additionally, Ukraine itself will need to confirm its readiness to join the European Union, possibly through a referendum. European leaders and experts suggest the same timeline: Ukraine and Moldova could become EU members by 2030.
The material was prepared with the support of MediaNetwork
Within the framework of MediaNetwork, the project was worked on by: Ekaterina Kovalchuk, Donbass News; Evgeniy Cheban, Evgeny Sholary, NewsMaker; Svetlana Kozlova, MediaNetwork
