"Baku is unlikely to agree to the delimitation of the entire border." An opinion from Yerevan
Experts about Armenia-Azerbaijan delimitation
“References to the Alma-Ata Declaration and the specification of a particular map for the delimitation process [between Armenia and Azerbaijan] are positive developments. However, there are no convincing arguments to suggest that Baku is inclined to delimit the entire Armenian-Azerbaijani border. I have serious concerns that obstacles will be created during the delimitation process on the territories of Armenia occupied by Azerbaijan, or that Baku will completely refuse further delimitation,” said political analyst Tigran Grigoryan.
He believes that Azerbaijan does not intend to withdraw its troops from the “strategically important territories it occupied during the military actions initiated in 2021 and 2022.” The expert explains this by stating that these heights “will give Azerbaijan a significant advantage in the event of a potential new escalation.”
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“Azerbaijan may find a pretext to halt the delimitation process”
“After the ethnic cleansing in Nagorno-Karabakh, the president of Azerbaijan repeatedly stated that Azerbaijani troops need to be on the territories they invaded to maintain control over Armenia,” said the political analyst.
In this context, he questions, “Why should Azerbaijan now agree to withdraw its troops from the occupied territories of Armenia” as part of the delimitation process:
“Azerbaijan, having achieved all its goals related to Nagorno-Karabakh, continues its process, now claiming sovereign territories of the Republic of Armenia.”
“Unblocking communications remains problematic for Armenia”
“In Armenia, there were people who believed that ‘closing the page of Nagorno-Karabakh would make it very easy to reach some agreements with Azerbaijan,’ says Tigran Grigoryan. He emphasizes that the events of the last six months have proven otherwise, moreover, they have revealed ‘other goals of Baku.’ According to the political scientist, they are related both to border demarcation and to unblocking regional communications.
‘The rhetoric of the Azerbaijani side on this issue has somewhat changed. Aliyev stated in one of his recent speeches that if Armenia does not want Russian presence on its roads, then international presence may be considered. But he continues to insist on the presence of a third party and the need for third-party security,’ he said.
And this is problematic, according to the political scientist, for Armenia, as it infringes on the sovereign right of the country to control its territory.
At the same time, he considers it illogical to fulfill only one point of the November 2020 statement, which ended the war in Karabakh. It was signed by the prime minister of Armenia and the presidents of Azerbaijan and Russia.
The analyst speaks about the 9th point of the trilateral statement. Referring to it, Azerbaijan demands a ‘corridor’ to its exclave of Nakhichevan. The authorities of Armenia declare that they are ready to provide roads but are not going to cede their control to any other country.
‘It is unjustified to present demands to Armenia when all other points are violated by other parties, are no longer applicable, and the statements, in essence, do not exist. If there is the presence of a third party, then it would be logical for Armenia to demand a similar presence in Nakhichevan, for example, for the use of the road from Yeraskh to Meghri,’ Grigoryan says.
He is convinced that Azerbaijan will never allow such a presence on its territory. And if the principle of reciprocity does not work, then ‘this will be another unilateral concession from Armenia.’
“Peace agreement will be signed, but it will be only about principles”
The political scientist does not rule out that a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan will be signed by the end of the year:
“But this will only be the beginning of the process. Many agreements in the agreement will be vague. Agreement will be reached only on principles. And there will not be very specific agreements. And it will take years to implement the agreements reached.”
Azerbaijan will continue its policy of exerting pressure on Armenia, if Yerevan “does not want to accept Baku’s point of view on certain issues,” Tigran Grigoryan is convinced.
