Russian research center’s election survey in Abkhazia deemed illegal and manipulative

The All-Russian Center for the Study of Public Opinion (VTsIOM) conducted an election survey in Abkhazia, announcing the candidate from the ruling team, Badra Gunba, as the unquestionable favorite in the presidential race. The survey allegedly found that one-third of voters intend to support him in the early presidential elections on February 15.

The Central Election Commission (CEC) of Abkhazia called the survey illegal, while the campaign teams of other presidential candidates denounced it as an attempt to manipulate public opinion.

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Moscow is clearly betting on Vice President Badra Gunba, considering him more reliable.

According to VTsIOM, 32% of survey participants plan to vote for Badra Gunba, the de facto successor to former President Aslan Bzhania. The Kremlin is openly backing Gunba in the upcoming election.

Opposition leader Adgur Ardzinba, according to VTsIOM, will receive just 15% of the vote. The other three candidates—Oleg Bartsits, Robert Arshba, and Adgur Khurkhumal—are projected to get 7%, 5%, and 2%, respectively.

The results were widely unpopular in Abkhazia, with the exception of Badra Gunba and his supporters.

The campaign team of one candidate, former trade representative of Abkhazia in Russia Oleg Bartsits, claims that the survey was conducted in violation of Abkhazian law, without approval from the Statistics Committee, and with a small sample size that cannot be considered representative.

“We view the survey results as an attempt to manipulate public opinion, which is unacceptable during an election period,” Bartsits’ campaign said in a statement.

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The lineup includes a candidate from the current authorities, one from the opposition, two centrists, and a banker.

Abkhazia’s CEC also deemed the survey illegal and in violation of Abkhazian law.

The CEC reminded that the Abkhazian Constitution prohibits the publication of such survey results within 10 days of the election. Moreover, there is no tradition of conducting official pre-election polls or creating such ratings in Abkhazia. The legislation does not even provide for exit polls on election day.

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The Election Commission is urging the citizens of Abkhazia not to participate in such phone surveys.

Tengiz Djopua, a member of the Public Chamber of Abkhazia, called the survey a “planned, staged campaign with indirect involvement of the population.” In his view, VTsIOM used a disinformation strategy borrowed from intelligence agencies.

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