Opinion: 'If Armenia abandons its red lines, it will only be state on paper'
European peace fund assistance to Armenia
“The European Union intends to continue providing assistance to Armenia under the European Peace Facility as it seeks to bring additional stability to the region,” believes military expert Leonid Nersisyan from the APRI Armenia analytical centre.
The European Peace Facility (EPF) is a tool through which Brussels provides funds to non-EU countries to enhance their defense capabilities, prevent conflicts, and strengthen peace.
It is known that the EU is considering providing Armenia with non-lethal material support for its armed forces. This support is intended to help protect civilians in crisis situations.
Again, the amount discussed is 10 million euros. While this is a modest sum compared to Armenia’s billions spent on ensuring its security, the authorities and experts view this aid as a positive sign of growing cooperation. Moreover, Leonid Nersisyan expects that the volume of allocated funds will gradually increase.
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It is unclear when EU Council will discuss providing assistance to Armenia.
The decision will come into effect if all 27 EU member states approve it. According to Radio Azatutyun (Freedom), the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas, presented this proposal to the EU Council. The exact date of the discussion is unknown, but it is reported that it will take place soon.
The European Peace Facility was established in 2021 to prevent conflicts worldwide and provide non-lethal weapons.
Armenia received support from the fund for the first time in 2024, amounting to 10 million euros. Hungary blocked the assistance and demanded similar support for Azerbaijan. However, after several weeks of closed-door negotiations, Budapest lifted its veto.
Expert commentary
10 million euros will not lead to significant transformations.
According to military expert Leonid Nersisyan, the provision of non-lethal technical equipment is not taken seriously by many. Expert circles talk more about aviation, tanks, and howitzers, while this type of aid is equally important.
He recalls that last year, when the EU Foreign Affairs Council decided to support Armenia, it was mainly about providing medical equipment:
“Of course, this is positive. But we must understand that these are limited resources. One cannot expect that this aid will lead to any serious transformations in the Armenian army.”
Nersisyan does not rule out that, as in 2024, Hungary may veto this decision again, and Slovakia could join it:
“However, the stance of the major EU member states is more important. If the Union decides to adopt this, Hungary or Slovakia will not be able to prevent it. Armenia cannot force Hungary to stop blocking the decision, but France and Germany can. Both Hungary and Slovakia are small economies compared to other EU countries. They cannot, for example, withstand economic threats.”
Proactivity in reforms in certain areas
Commenting on the situation in the Armenian army, Leonid Nersisyan said that even information from open sources indicates the proactivity of Armenia’s defense structures. This is evident both in terms of weapons procurement and military reforms. He notes positive changes in artillery training and other types of troops:
“But we still have problems. We see that reforms are being carried out, but not all of them are progressing at the same speed and with the same effectiveness.”
The military expert positively evaluates efforts to strengthen the second line of defense. However, he also mentions serious shortcomings in other areas. He believes that to improve the effectiveness of the work, it is necessary to involve people who have proven they can and want to “promote new concepts and implement innovations.”
If Azerbaijan decides to start war, it will find reason
Nersisyan is confident that no matter how constructive Armenia’s proposals may be, if Baku decides to start a war, it will find a way to do so:
“They will come up with some reason. For example, they will spread false information for another ten or twenty days, claiming that Armenia is shelling their positions. In the case of Azerbaijan, any pretext can serve as a trigger for provocation.”
He considers Azerbaijan’s statements that Armenia should terminate agreements with certain countries regarding military-technical cooperation and even return supplied weapons to be absurd:
“In that case, they will certainly attack Armenia. But now, at least, we know that if we continue the military reforms, procurements, and other activities correctly, we could eventually reach a point where they will think twice and realize that there is no point in starting military actions.”
He believes that the main factor for security should be the country’s own defense potential, explaining that “the institution of guarantees doesn’t work very well in the world.”
Baku wants to get everything
The expert believes that Azerbaijan’s motivation for attacking could only be the desire to “get everything,” which cannot be achieved through negotiations or merely talks.
He recalls that Baku demands constitutional changes, which is, in fact, an internal matter for Armenia. Moreover, it insists on providing the “Zangezur corridor” through Armenia’s sovereign territory, which would not be controlled in any way. Finally, Azerbaijan pushes the notion of “Western Azerbaijan,” which it defines as the entire territory of Armenia. According to him, under this term, Azerbaijan envisions that “150-200 thousand Azerbaijanis will become citizens of the Republic of Armenia with protected status.”
Leonid Nersisyan emphasizes that all of this contradicts Armenia’s existence, sovereignty, and independence.
“I cannot imagine how a peace treaty could be signed if Baku does not abandon these demands. The red lines of the Armenian side are such that if Armenia gives them up, the state will remain only on paper. I don’t think any Armenian leader could sign such a document.”
Among the factors that have restrained Azerbaijan until now, the expert mentioned the position of the United States, Iran’s attitude, and the presence of European Union observers stationed on the Armenian border.
“There are various factors. And this is what makes the situation dangerous. As soon as one or two of these factors weaken or disappear, the risks of war could increase,” he said.
