French President Emmanuel Macron initiated online Pashinyan-Aliyev talks. They were held on February 4, Macron himself and the head of the European Council, Charles Michel, took part in them. This was the first meeting between the Prime Minister of Armenia and the President of Azerbaijan in 2022. Prior to that, under European patronage, Pashinyan and Aliyev met on December 14, 2021 in Brussels at the initiative of Charles Michel, and the next day, on December 15, at the initiative of Emmanuel Macron.
Details of the meetings have not been reported – neither in `December nor now.
The President of France himself, during a video conference on February 4, spoke of “the need to continue discussions on key points”.
What do the more frequent meetings mediated by Europeans mean? Is it possible to assume that France, as a mediator of negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and Western partners in general, will take a more active position? Will Russia concede to the West the solution of political issues, and not just humanitarian ones? JAMnews discussed these questions with political observer Hakob Badalyan.
The process of implementation of the agreements is frozen
“Obviously, the videoconference was a continuation of the two previous meetings in December last year. And, judging by the statement of the French side, the initiative of Emmanuel Macron was caused by the slowness of the implementation of the agreements reached or their freezing.
It is not mentioned what specific agreements the statement refers to, but it is clear that they have not yet been implemented.
Both after the two Brussels meetings and also after the Sochi meeting on November 26, 2021, it can be stated that nothing special has happened in terms of the implementation of the agreements, with the exception of a couple of cases of the return of prisoners of war”.
Among the agreements reached by the negotiators following the results of the Brussels meetings was the issue of the return of Armenian prisoners. Two weeks later, on January 29, five prisoners of war were returned to the Armenian side. On February 7, Azerbaijan returned eight more prisoners to Armenia, according to the Armenian Foreign Ministry, following online negotiations mediated by Emmanuel Macron and Charles Michel.
Ukrainian factor
“Of course, there are other reasons for the ‘activation’ of Macron, they are associated with parallel processes. The attention of key countries today is focused on the Ukrainian crisis. I call it the “Ukrainian reason for the general crisis”, because in fact the crisis is wider, and Ukraine is just the reason.
It should not be ruled out that vacuum risks will arise in our region in connection with this crisis.
These risks can lead not only to any military actions, but also to the destruction and freezing of the process itself.
And this in the future will require even greater efforts to re-glue what is available at this stage.
The President of France, one of the co-chairing countries of the OSCE Minsk Group [format of peace talks on the Karabakh settlement before the 2020 war], being a significant political player in the negotiation process, is trying to take on the role of a mediator who will control the process”.
Elections in France
“In addition to the fact that Emmanuel Macron is trying to use the Karabakh issue in a broader “Ukrainian context”, his involvement in this may also be associated with the upcoming presidential elections in France. And the closer to the elections, the more active Macron becomes.
The Armenian community of France is quite integrated into French life. Very often it is measured in numbers – more than half a million Armenians. But it is so involved in various processes of the country that it has a tangible impact on French society.
In this regard, two candidates for the presidency of France – Eric Zemmour and Valerie Pecresse – have already managed to visit Armenia. Pecresse went even further, she visited Artsakh. Undoubtedly, Macron will also try to be at the center of attention of Armenians, especially since an annual event organized by the Armenian community is planned in France in the near future, in which both Macron himself and Pecresse will take part.
Macron will still try to achieve some results in the negotiation process, and this is something he will try to capitalize within France itself”.
Nothing can be achieved unilaterally
“None of the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group [Russia, the United States and France] can achieve anything significant in the settlement of the Karabakh conflict without coordinating all issues with the other two co-chairs.
In this regard, it is noteworthy that Pashinyan’s video conference with Aliyev took place not only before the announced meeting between Emmanuel Macron and Vladimir Putin, but also after Macron’s telephone conversation with Joe Biden on February 2, and with Putin on February 3.
Of course, official reports say that Macron discussed Ukraine with Biden, but I am sure that the so-called “Ukrainian issues” include a wide range of issues, including the Karabakh problem.
We are talking about the three co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group, and, of course, they are talking about the Caucasus too. I do not rule out that holding a video conference on February 4 was also discussed, both with Biden and Putin.
None of the co-chairs can decide anything unilaterally. There can be no division of obligations by spheres between them, for the simple reason that there are no separate humanitarian issues, and there are no separate political issues
All humanitarian issues have a political component, these areas are more than closely interconnected”.
