"Azerbaijan organized the blockade of NK with the Russian Federation" - Armenian analyst
Blockade of the Lachin corridor in NK
For more than a month Azerbaijan has blocked the only road linking Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia and the world beyomd. Supplies of gas and electricity, and internet service, have been affected. Armenia has raised the issue at various international platforms, including the UN Security Council, and the country’s authorities openly criticize the inaction of Russia, which is responsible for the security of Armenians in NK.
Traditional calls and statements to end the blockade are heard from different countries of the world, the topic does not leave the pages of the international media, but tough decisions and actions, for example, in the form of sanctions against Baku, did not follow and the corridor is still closed.
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The reaction of the international community has been mixed. In the UN Security Council, all countries criticized the blockade of NK and called for the opening of the corridor, but a unified stance proved elusive.
The Azerbaijani ambassador to Belgium and Luxembourg, on the other hand, thanked Russia for its support, saying that “France once again lost to Azerbaijan in the UN Security Council, failing to make a pro-Armenian statement.”
US Ambassador to the OSCE Michael Carpenter demanded that both countries “immediately restore access to the corridor.”
Armenian Security Council Secretary Armen Grigoryan stated in an interview with Armenian media that “Moscow is also involved in blocking the corridor.” Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan several times appealed to Russia with a call to take steps to unblock the Lachin corridor. He reiterated the need to send an international fact-finding team , egarded by experts as a lack of confidence in Russia.
“The sluggishness of the reaction of the international community to what is happening is evident. And such a reaction is natural, taking into account Armenia’s inaction in determining its foreign policy course,” political analyst Hovsep Khurshudyan believes.
Hovsep Khurshudyan, political analyst
“Armenia is sitting and waiting for the international community to condemn, put pressure on Aliyev to stop the provocation in the Lachin corridor, which is leading to an humanitarian catastrophe in Artsakh.
Appeals to the UN or the ECtHR are not enough. A more concrete and political approach is needed. In fact, Azerbaijan did not single-handedly organize the blockade, but in close cooperation with the Russian Federation. Accordingly, this should have been an occasion to clarify relations with Russia. And these relations in fact are not allied, but hostile, at least on the part of Russia.
Russia not only organized a blockade with Azerbaijan with specific goals, which were announced by the Secretary of the Security Council of Armenia Armen Grigoryan, but also prevents the international community from adequately assessing what happened.
The Secretary of the Security Council of Armenia said that Russia is trying to draw Armenia into the Russia-Belarus Union State and to force Azerbaijan to provide a corridor through the south of the country, which will be controlled by the Russian Federation.
In the UN Security Council, according to reliable information it was Russia that prevented the adoption of a statement. Russia provided a diplomatic out for Azerbaijan’s crimes.
Of course, this does not mean that the international community will stop its efforts to unblock the corridor. It is unlikely that in the 21st century the world will sit back and watch 120,000 people starve to death.”
Hunger will be followed by sanctions
“Of course, we expected a tougher and more prompt reaction, but nevertheless we see that the wheel is turning, indignation in the West with what is happening in the Lachin corridor is growing. This can be seen from the reaction of not only individual deputies, officials, public figures from different countries, but also major Western media.
This pressure will increase, and soon Azerbaijan will have to decide whether to continue its policy, which will lead to complete international isolation, as their actions effectively mean genocide.
This is a repeat of the Armenian genocide in the Ottoman Empire in 1915, when people were herded into the desert and many died of starvation. The Azeri dictator is now trying to organize the same famine.
If a real famine occurs in Nagorno-Karabakh, sanctions will follow, at least on the kleptocratic Aliyev family, if not the entire country.”
European reputation and Azerbaijani gas
“The long-term blockade of NK puts Europe in an awkward position. The impending famine and parallel cooperation between Europe and Baku on gas will completely devalue and nullify Europe’s image in the world. And Europe is not only Ursula von de Leyen; Europe is both the French and the Dutch, who constantly raise the issue of the blockade.
In Europe not everyone is satisfied with the gas deal with Azerbaijan, it does not even make up 5-6% of demand there.
Not everyone understands why it is necessary to refuse the gas of one genocidal dictator and start using the gas provided by another.”
Armenia’s indecisiveness
“Armenia must withdraw from the integration structures operating under the leadership of Russia, in particular, the military bloc of the CSTO, the CIS, break all allied pseudo-agreements with Russia. This will determine who is our ally and who the enemy. It will become easier to work at the diplomatic level, including with Western countries.
Armenia complains that it is being dragged into the Union State and because of this it is under pressure, including in the Lachin corridor, but at the same time does not leave the CSTO and similar structures.
Fortunately, Armenia abandoned CSTO exercises on its territory, although this is very minor.
However, the world will not look at the passivity of Armenia. The attitude of the international community to ethnic cleansing and genocide, anywhere, cannot be connected with the position of the authorities of any country, including those of Artsakh. We are talking about thousands of civilians, and no matter whose ally you are, this is no reason to allow genocide.
Moreover, it has long been clear to the entire international community that Armenia has become a hostage of relations with Russia and a hostage of the system of insecurity built by Russia, Turkey and Azerbaijan in the region.
These three dictatorial regimes are trying to completely oust the West from the region. Proof of this is the “3+3” format [cooperation between Turkey, Russia, Azerbaijan, Iran, Armenia and Georgia], which they so strongly want to come to and against which Georgia and Armenia resist.”
What’s next
“Armenia’s indecisiveness arise from the fears of the country’s leadership. These fears are inherent in any hostage situation. Armenia is a country where terrorist attacks have been periodically carried out, including the assassinations of high-ranking officials.
Recall “October 27” [on this day in 1999, an armed group staged a shooting in the Armenian parliament, wherein the speaker and two vice-speakers, the prime minister, three deputies and one minister were killed]. And this is not the only incident. There have been many political murders in Armenia. We all know who is behind this, but it is not customary to talk about it.
Putin, with his actions in Ukraine, I think, will not bat an eye if he has the opportunity to arrange a new terrorist attack on October 27th. Our government’s fear is understandable.
But Pashinyan, I think, is also worried about the country, although these fears are exaggerated. Of course, the West will not ensure the complete security of the country. But the weight of Western partners today is so great that it may well deter Turkey and Azerbaijan from attacking Armenia if it withdraws from the CSTO. Western pressure was on the face when the Azerbaijanis seized the town of Parukh in Karabakh last spring and attacked Armenia in September 2022.
Of course there may be economic sanctions from Russia, given Armenia’s heavy dependence upon it. But this is the price we have to pay for our safety. Unfortunately, we are dealing with such a country and regime that we will not be able to get off so easily. And none of Russia’s neighbors got rid of it so easily. All suffered from the imperial policy of the Russian Federation.
Russia will use Azerbaijan as a lever. Armenia does not have contiguous borders with Russia, therefore it will not be able to threaten with a direct attack, but only through Azerbaijan.”
Blockade of the Lachin corridor in NK
