Azerbaijan's new military operation in Nagorno-Karabakh? Analysis from Armenia

JAMnews

Yerevan

In recent weeks, tensions in Nagorno-Karabakh have increased significantly. Armenian sources report constant shelling from the Azerbaijani side, the gas pipeline through which gas is supplied to Karabakh from Armenia has been damaged. The Azerbaijani military is calling on the residents of NK to leave their homes, “otherwise they will be destroyed”, information is being circulated on social media about the departure of Russian peacekeepers which have been stationed there after the end of the 2020 war.

What is known so far

The Armenian side reports that a humanitarian catastrophe is possible due to the damage to the gas pipeline in the area, which has been controlled by Azerbaijan since the end of the second Karabakh war. For a week the Azerbaijani side has not allowed restoration work to be carried out at the site of the accident.

Meanwhile, it is cold in NK, and people cannot heat their homes, bread factories cannot operate without gas. At the same time, the Azerbaijani Armed Forces play a recording near the Armenian villages calling local residents to leave or “get killed otherwise”.

Azerbaijani telegram channels disseminate information about the conduct of a special operation by the Azerbaijani Armed Forces in Nagorno-Karabakh. This refers to the “forced expulsion of Armenian gangs from the territories of Azerbaijan” in the coming days. In this regard, residents of NK are being called to leave their homes in order to save their lives.

The Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan is spreading information about shelling from the Armenian side “from the area of temporary deployment of Russian peacekeepers”.

The Armenian side refutes this information, explaining that “this misinformation is another attempt to cover up their own violations of the ceasefire”.

At the same time, information is spreading on Azerbaijani social media about the fact that Russian peacekeeping mission has left Karabakh since the beginning of hostilities in Ukraine. There is no official confirmation of this information.

The EU Special Representative for the South Caucasus arrived in Yerevan on March 14 for a two-day visit. Toivo Klaar wrote on his Twitter page that “the international situation has become more tense”, and in such a situation, the EU is more than ever committed to establishing peace in the South Caucasus.

The NK officially reports that the information disseminated in Azerbaijani social networks, including the accumulation of Azerbaijani military equipment on the line of contact, does not correspond to reality. All the information of the Azerbaijani telegram channels is regarded as another attempt to cause panic among the Armenian population.

Expert commentary

Political scientist Tigran Grigoryan

Information in telegram channels

“I think it is possible that the Azerbaijanis will resort to certain provocations, at least they have already prepared the information background for this in recent days and weeks.

Provocations with shelling and warnings to leave their homes near the village of Khramort and others are perhaps aimed at using the Russian-Ukrainian war as an opportunity to achieve some tactical success on the ground. Therefore, yes, we must be prepared for all scenarios.

All this is part of the long-term strategy of Azerbaijan, the purpose of which is to intimidate the people living in Artsakh, to force them to leave the territory “on a voluntary basis.”

“Withdrawal” of Russian peacekeepers

“This information is actively disseminated by various representatives of the Azerbaijani propaganda machine, as well as their satellites in the West.

According to the information I have, this is not true. Perhaps some of the peacekeepers who previously served in Nagorno-Karabakh are now in Ukraine, but as yet, not a single peacekeeper has been sent to Ukraine from Artsakh”.

What to do?

“I think it is necessary to inform the Russian side about the provocations, to emphasize that Azerbaijan is trying to carry them out using Moscow’s engagement in other areas.

It is also necessary to have our military ready, the units of the Nagorno-Karabakh Defense Army, so that if needed it would be possible to protect the population of border villages, since it makes no sense to rely only on Russian peacekeepers”.

Political observer Hakob Badalyan

About information in social networks

“The actions of the Azerbaijani side are an attempt to exert psychological and political pressure, forming the expectation of risks, first of all, to cause panic in society. Thus, they are trying to stimulate the outflow of people from NK.

From a political point of view and the solution of various other issues, these are steps not only to impose certain political conditions on Armenia, but also on Russia․

So far, Azerbaijan’s actions (provocations, statements) are aimed precisely at this result. I consider the option of resolving the problems by military means unlikely, although, of course, taking into account the situation in the world, nothing can be ruled out. We must be as prepared as possible for such risks.

Various small, so-called local provocations are not excluded, they are even quite possible, but I consider more or less large-scale, let’s say “special operations” very unlikely. Again, nothing can be ruled out in today’s world, but I think this is unlikely, as it would mean conflict with Russia, given the presence of its peacekeepers there. And if Russia does not intervene, then this may have serious political consequences in terms of Armenian-Russian relations.

I do not think that Azerbaijan will go on an adventure of this magnitude. Therefore, I consider it more likely that psychological and political pressure will be exerted both on Armenia and the inhabitants of NK, and on Russia through Azerbaijan by the states interested in this”.

“Departure” of the peacekeepers

“I don’t think Russia needs to send peacekeepers to Ukraine․ There are still men left in the Russian army, so there is no need to transfer peacekeepers stationed in Karabakh to Ukraine.

Looking at it more broadly, the logic of the political game will lead Russia to maintain its positions in the Caucasus, because if it loses its positions here, I don’t think that Ukraine will be able to resolve any issue, at least within the limits of logic, which he announces. Therefore, on this issue, the Azerbaijani side is making an attempt to spread its propaganda”.

What to do?

“First of all, it is necessary to try to state as clearly as possible in international organizations the risk of humanitarian problems and already existing problems – due to the fact that NK is deprived of gas supply. This humanitarian issue should be on the agenda of international actors and especially the co-chairing countries of the OSCE Minsk Group [France, the United States and Russia, the format of the peaceful settlement of the Karabakh conflict under their co-chairmanship was in effect until the second Karabakh war in 2020].

We must try to stimulate the activity of the co-chairs of the Minsk Group in this direction. It is clear that now everyone is pre-occupied with Ukraine, it is very difficult to focus on Artsakh, but we must work with this logic and in this context.

At the same time, of course, we must do everything possible to withstand hostilities of any magnitude. This should be one of the effective deterrents or protection mechanisms if Azerbaijan resorts to a military provocation of any scale, no matter how unlikely a large-scale provocation seems to us”.