Opinion: "Armenia can develop relations with NATO without exiting CSTO for now"
NATO-Armenia relations
Russia believes that the West is encouraging Armenia’s approachment with NATO and warns Armenian authorities to consider “how safe this is and what it will lead to.”
This reaction follows a statement by NATO Secretary General’s Special Representative for the Caucasus and Central Asia, Javier Colomina, regarding Armenia’s approach to the bloc. Specifically, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova stated that approaching the North Atlantic Alliance has already resulted in “many countries losing sovereignty and independence.”
Senior research fellow at APRI Armenia, military expert Leonid Nersisyan views this as a direct threat to Armenia. He suggests that Yerevan should refrain from engaging in discussions on this matter as it may not alter the situation and could potentially exacerbate it. Instead, Nersisyan advocates for diversifying foreign policy and preparing for possible future scenarios.
“We urge our partners to draw nearer to us, and that is precisely what Armenia is doing”
Javier Colomina announced a “significant shift” in relations with Armenia during an interview with Armenpress agency. According to him, NATO is prepared to progress at the pace determined by Yerevan in its approach to the bloc:
“We are content with the current bilateral relations with Armenia. We are also highly encouraged by Armenia’s decisions in foreign and defense policy, the transition they have opted for. I understand this is a challenging decision and may require considerable time, but we urge our partners to draw nearer to us, and that is precisely what Armenia is doing.”
Colomina also highlighted NATO’s support for Yerevan’s actions, such as the decision to increase troop numbers in the NATO peacekeeping force (KFOR) in Kosovo, which, in his view, signifies a clear “demonstration of political engagement and dedication.”
The Special Representative of the NATO Secretary General further mentioned that a new Individual Partnership Program (ITPP) “with ambitious objectives” is currently under development for Armenia.
“Armenia needs to open a map and see in which region, between which neighbors it is located”
Commenting on Colomina’s statements, the official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, advised to “open the map and see in which region, between which neighbors” Armenia is located. She declared Armenia’s approach to NATO to be contrary to the country’s national interests:
“We have already witnessed the consequences of proximity to NATO – involvement in conflicts, loss of sovereignty and independence, submission of will to external planning in all aspects, and, most importantly, the inability to pursue one’s own national interests. We must analyze this and understand Armenia’s own national interests, what is beneficial in the short, medium, and long term, and act accordingly, rather than relying on promises.”
She was followed by the special ambassador of the Russian Foreign Ministry for CSTO issues, Viktor Vasilyev, who also argued that Armenia was acting “under pressure from the West.” He stated that “Armenia’s security, including in the military-technical sphere, cannot be ensured without cooperation within the CSTO.”
Vasilyev believes that the crisis in Armenia’s relations with the Russian military bloc CSTO is also the result of “understandable emotions of the leadership and residents of Armenia.” However, he believes that “despite the difficulties, reason must prevail.”
Comment
Military expert Leonid Nersisyan also observes a significant substantive shift in NATO-Armenia relations. In this regard, he highlights joint exercises with the US military and visits to Yerevan by high-ranking military personnel.
He believes that Yerevan is genuinely taking steps towards closer ties with NATO. As evidence, he points to the agreement on military-technical cooperation signed with NATO member France:
“In this context, it’s possible to enhance cooperation with NATO to some extent, to progress, without yet making a final decision to leave the CSTO. That moment will come eventually. However, the West now recognizes that Armenia faces challenges related to the CSTO and the severance of ties with Russia.”
According to the expert, it is crucial whether NATO will be prepared to offer Armenia assurances “that mitigate the risks of leaving the CSTO.”
“Such assurances are needed regarding both security and the economy, in relation to both Azerbaijan and Russia. Russia’s response could either be through Azerbaijan, in the form of military escalation, or economic,” he explained.
Regarding the statements from the Russian side, Nersisyan interpreted them as direct threats against Armenia.
He believes the underlying message conveyed is: “If you move towards NATO, Armenia’s existence as a country will be at stake.” Furthermore, as the expert pointed out, Zakharova mentions possible issues but fails to acknowledge potential problems with Russia itself.
“For years, Yerevan solely relied on cooperation with Russia, yet received neither military nor diplomatic support in difficult times. It’s now absurd to suggest that Armenia lacks the right to seek other partners,” he emphasized.
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NATO-Armenia relations
