{"id":4387,"date":"2017-07-07T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2017-07-06T20:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/jam-news.net\/az\/armenia-eaeu-two-years-of-membership\/"},"modified":"2022-01-18T01:28:52","modified_gmt":"2022-01-17T21:28:52","slug":"armenia-eaeu-two-years-of-membership","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jam-news.net\/az\/armenia-eaeu-two-years-of-membership\/","title":{"rendered":"Erm\u0259nistan-AA\u0130\u0130. \u0130ki illik \u00fczvl\u00fck n\u0259 verdi \u2013 y\u00fcks\u0259li\u015f, yoxsa eni\u015f?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Yerevanda Erm\u0259nistan\u0131n Avrasiya \u0130qtisadi \u0130ttifaq\u0131nda iki illik \u00fczvl\u00fcy\u00fcn\u00fcn yekunlar\u0131na h\u0259sr olunmu\u015f d\u0259yirmi masa ke\u00e7irilib.<\/p>\n

M\u00fczakir\u0259l\u0259r zaman\u0131 Erm\u0259nistan\u0131n ba\u015f naziri, beyn\u0259lxalq inteqrasiya v\u0259 islahatlar naziri Va\u00e7e Qabrielyan deyib ki, v\u0259ziyy\u0259tin d\u0259y\u0259rl\u0259ndirilm\u0259si \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn bir s\u0131ra amil \u2013 yaln\u0131z konkret r\u0259q\u0259ml\u0259r deyil, h\u0259m d\u0259 \u0259m\u0259kda\u015fl\u0131q konteksti n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 al\u0131nmal\u0131d\u0131r. Yekunda Va\u00e7e Qabrielyan bildirib ki, iki il \u0259rzind\u0259 Erm\u0259nistan\u0131n resurslar\u0131 art\u0131b, idxal mallar\u0131n\u0131n qiym\u0259tl\u0259ri is\u0259 ucuzla\u015f\u0131b. Bu ifad\u0259ni \u00f6lk\u0259 medias\u0131 sitat olaraq yay\u0131b. Amma bu, sad\u0259 \u00f6lk\u0259 v\u0259t\u0259nda\u015f\u0131na \u00e7ox \u015fey a\u00e7\u0131qlam\u0131r.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

JAMnews bu t\u0259\u015fkilatda \u00fczvl\u00fcy\u00fcn Erm\u0259nistana konkret olaraq n\u0259 verdiyini m\u00fcxt\u0259lif amill\u0259ri n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 almaqla r\u0259q\u0259ml\u0259r vasit\u0259sil\u0259 ayd\u0131nla\u015fd\u0131rma\u011fa \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131b. \u0130qtisadi \u015f\u0259rh\u00e7i Babken Tunyan\u0131n bir m\u00fcdd\u0259t \u0259vv\u0259l bizim \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn apard\u0131\u011f\u0131 t\u0259hlili diqq\u0259tiniz\u0259 \u00e7atd\u0131r\u0131r\u0131q.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Go to top<\/a><\/div> <\/p>\n

\u0130lk d\u0259f\u0259 m\u0259qal\u0259 20.12.2016 tarixind\u0259 d\u0259rc olunub<\/b><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Bu m\u0259qal\u0259 art\u0131q \u00e7apa haz\u0131r idi ki, Erm\u0259nistan prezidentinin r\u0259smi sayt\u0131nda Serj Sarqsyan\u0131n dekabr\u0131n 16-da Avrasiya \u0130qtisadi Komit\u0259sinin idar\u0259 hey\u0259tinin s\u0259dri Tiqran Sarqsyan\u0131 q\u0259bul etm\u0259si bar\u0259d\u0259 m\u0259lumat verildi. R\u0259smi m\u0259lumatlara xas olan standart ifad\u0259l\u0259ri ixtisar edib, ancaq prezidentin s\u00f6zl\u0259rini veririk. \u00c7oxlar\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn t\u0259\u0259cc\u00fcbl\u00fc olsa da, prezident kifay\u0259t q\u0259d\u0259r s\u0259mimi dan\u0131\u015f\u0131b.<\/p>\n

\u201cBiz Erm\u0259nistan\u0131n Avrasiya \u0130qtisadi Birliyin\u0259 qo\u015fulmas\u0131 prosesinin ba\u015flan\u011f\u0131c\u0131nda dayanm\u0131\u015fd\u0131q, bu birliy\u0259 daxil olark\u0259n d\u0259 Erm\u0259nistan\u0131n iqtisadi v\u0259ziyy\u0259tinin \u0259h\u0259miyy\u0259tli d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259d\u0259 yax\u015f\u0131la\u015fd\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na \u00fcmid edirdik. T\u0259\u0259ss\u00fcf ki, bu qo\u015fulma beyn\u0259lxalq iqtisadi prosesl\u0259rl\u0259 \u00fcst-\u00fcst\u0259 d\u00fc\u015fd\u00fc, h\u0259min prosesl\u0259r \u00f6lk\u0259nin iqtisadiyyat\u0131na m\u0259nfi t\u0259sir g\u00f6st\u0259rdi v\u0259 v\u0259t\u0259nda\u015flar\u0131m\u0131z Avrasiya \u0130qtisadi Birliyin\u0259 m\u00fcnasib\u0259td\u0259 h\u0259l\u0259lik yum\u015faq des\u0259k, g\u00f6zl\u0259m\u0259 m\u00f6vqeyind\u0259dirl\u0259r. Halbuki \u00fczvl\u00fckd\u0259n imtina ets\u0259ydik, \u0259min\u0259m ki, neqativ yana\u015fma daha \u00e7ox olard\u0131. Bu d\u00f6vr \u0259rzind\u0259 \u0259min\u0259m ki, b\u00f6y\u00fck i\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcb v\u0259 art\u0131q 10 g\u00fcnd\u0259n sonra m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259ri \u00fcmumil\u0259\u015fdirm\u0259k imkan\u0131m\u0131z olacaq\u201d, – Sarqsyan A\u0130B-in idar\u0259 hey\u0259tinin r\u0259hb\u0259ri il\u0259 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc zaman\u0131 bildirib.<\/p>\n

\u201c10 g\u00fcnd\u0259n sonra\u201d dey\u0259nd\u0259 prezident \u00e7ox g\u00fcman ki, illik iqtisadi g\u00f6st\u0259ricil\u0259rin \u00fcmumil\u0259\u015fdirilm\u0259sini n\u0259z\u0259rd\u0259 tutub. \u018flb\u0259tt\u0259, bu m\u0259lumatlar yanvarda d\u0259rc olunacaq, amma \u00f6lk\u0259 r\u0259hb\u0259rliyi onlarla birinci tan\u0131\u015f olacaq.<\/p>\n

Eyni zamanda 10 g\u00fcnd\u0259n sonra Erm\u0259nistan\u0131n Avrasiya \u0130qtisadi Birliyin\u0259 daxil olmas\u0131n\u0131n iki ili tamam olur. Erm\u0259nistan Respublikas\u0131 1 yanvar 2015-ci ild\u0259n A\u0130B-in tamh\u00fcquqlu \u00fczv\u00fcd\u00fcr. \u0130lk d\u0259f\u0259 r\u0259smi olaraq \u00fczv olma bar\u0259d\u0259 Erm\u0259nistan prezidenti Serj Sarqsyan 2013-c\u00fc ilin sentyabr ay\u0131nda b\u0259yan edib.<\/p>\n

Buna q\u0259d\u0259r Erm\u0259nistanda (v\u0259 t\u0259k Erm\u0259nistanda yox) ham\u0131 \u0259min idi ki, \u00f6lk\u0259 \u0259ks istiqam\u0259td\u0259 – Avropa \u0130ttifaq\u0131na t\u0259r\u0259f h\u0259r\u0259k\u0259t edir. Dan\u0131\u015f\u0131qlar m\u00fcv\u0259ff\u0259qiyy\u0259tl\u0259 sona \u00e7atm\u0131\u015fd\u0131 v\u0259 Assosiasiya haqq\u0131nda sazi\u015f imzalanma\u011fa haz\u0131r idi, onun vacib t\u0259rkib hiss\u0259si olan \u201cAzad ticar\u0259tin d\u0259rin v\u0259 h\u0259rt\u0259r\u0259fli zonas\u0131na dair sazi\u015f\u201d (DCFTA) Erm\u0259nistanda istehsal olunan mallar\u0131n Avropa bazar\u0131na daxil olmas\u0131n\u0131 asanla\u015fd\u0131rmal\u0131 v\u0259 Erm\u0259nistan\u0131 A\u0130-y\u0259 bir add\u0131m da yax\u0131nla\u015fd\u0131rmal\u0131 idi. Bununla bel\u0259, 2013-c\u00fc ilin sentyabr ay\u0131ndan biz DCFTA-n\u0131 unudub, qanunvericiliyimizi A\u0130B-in standartlar\u0131na uy\u011funla\u015fd\u0131rma\u011fa ba\u015flad\u0131q.<\/p>\n

\u00a0A\u0130B-\u0259 \u00fczvl\u00fck Erm\u0259nistana n\u0259 verdi?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Bu sual tez-tez s\u0259sl\u0259ns\u0259 d\u0259, ona do\u011fru-d\u00fcr\u00fcst cavab ala bilm\u0259mi\u015fik. Bu da t\u0259\u0259cc\u00fcbl\u00fc deyil, \u00e7\u00fcnki A\u0130B-\u0259 \u00fczvl\u00fcy\u00fcn qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirilm\u0259si \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn (nec\u0259 t\u0259sir etdi, n\u0259 d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259d\u0259 t\u0259sir etdi) ciddi analitik i\u015f t\u0259l\u0259b olunur. Bu i\u015f Erm\u0259nistan h\u00f6kum\u0259tinin sifari\u015fi il\u0259 h\u0259yata ke\u00e7irilib: 2015-ci ilin birinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda inteqrasiyan\u0131n iqtisadi t\u0259siri qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirilib. Amma iki illik d\u00f6vr\u00fc \u0259hat\u0259 ed\u0259n t\u0259dqiqat \u0259limizd\u0259 yoxdur.<\/p>\n

Bu da \u201cAvropa\u201d v\u0259 \u201cAvrasiya\u201d kurslar\u0131n\u0131n t\u0259r\u0259fdarlar\u0131na A\u0130B-in t\u0259sirini \u00f6zl\u0259rin\u0259 xeyir etdiyi kimi q\u0259l\u0259m\u0259 verm\u0259k imkan\u0131 yarad\u0131r. Misal \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn, \u201cAvropa y\u00f6nl\u00fc\u201dl\u0259r \u0259mindir ki, A\u0130B, o c\u00fcml\u0259d\u0259n d\u0259 Rusiya il\u0259 m\u00fcnasib\u0259tl\u0259ri d\u0259rinl\u0259\u015fdir\u0259r\u0259k, biz Erm\u0259nistan\u0131n bu \u00f6lk\u0259d\u0259n iqtisadi as\u0131l\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bir az da art\u0131r\u0131b, onu Rusiyada ba\u015f ver\u0259n, Q\u0259rbin t\u0259tbiq etdiyi sanksiyalar v\u0259 neftin qiym\u0259tinin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fm\u0259si il\u0259 \u015f\u0259rtl\u0259n\u0259n neqativ prosesl\u0259r\u0259 qar\u015f\u0131 h\u0259ssasl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rm\u0131\u015f olduq.<\/p>\n

Dig\u0259rl\u0259ri is\u0259 \u0259ksin\u0259 bildirir ki, A\u0130B-\u0259 qo\u015fulmaq Erm\u0259nistana b\u00f6y\u00fck imkanlar yaratd\u0131: 200 milyonluq bazara \u00e7\u0131x\u0131\u015f v\u0259 Avropa bazar\u0131 il\u0259 A\u0130B aras\u0131na vasit\u0259\u00e7i rolu. Onlar \u0259mindirl\u0259r ki, biz ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z imkanlardan tam m\u0259nas\u0131 il\u0259 istifad\u0259 etm\u0259yi bacarm\u0131r\u0131qsa, problem el\u0259 \u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fczd\u0259dir. Erm\u0259nistan\u0131n iqtisadi v\u0259ziyy\u0259tinin pisl\u0259\u015fm\u0259si il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 is\u0259 deyirl\u0259r ki, birliy\u0259 daxil olmasayd\u0131q, h\u0259r \u015fey daha pis olard\u0131.<\/p>\n

\u00d6lk\u0259 prezidentinin m\u00f6vqeyi, m\u0259qal\u0259nin \u0259vv\u0259lind\u0259n d\u0259 g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fcy\u00fc kimi, daha t\u0259mkinlidir. Serj Sarqsyan bir t\u0259r\u0259fd\u0259n eyham vurur ki, g\u00f6zl\u0259ntil\u0259r \u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc do\u011frultmay\u0131b v\u0259 ya qism\u0259n do\u011fruldub, h\u0259m\u00e7inin qeyd edir ki, c\u0259miyy\u0259t h\u0259l\u0259 d\u0259 g\u00f6zl\u0259m\u0259 m\u00f6vqeyind\u0259dir. Dig\u0259r t\u0259r\u0259fd\u0259n is\u0259 \u00fcmidl\u0259rin do\u011frulmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na beyn\u0259lxalq iqtisadi prosesl\u0259rl\u0259 b\u0259ra\u0259t qazand\u0131r\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Eyni zamanda \u0259minlikl\u0259 bildirir ki, \u00fczvl\u00fckd\u0259n imtina zaman\u0131 neqativ yana\u015fmalar daha \u00e7ox ola bil\u0259rdi<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Do\u011frudan da Erm\u0259nistan A\u0130B-\u0259 daxil olmasayd\u0131, \u00f6lk\u0259d\u0259 iqtisadi v\u0259ziyy\u0259t nec\u0259 olacaqd\u0131? Misal \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn, Erm\u0259nistan\u0131n yeni ba\u015f naziri Karen Karapetyan bir ne\u00e7\u0259 d\u0259f\u0259 m\u00fcxt\u0259lif yerl\u0259rd\u0259 bildirib ki, birliy\u0259 daxil olmasayd\u0131q, iqtisadi g\u00f6st\u0259ricil\u0259rimizin nec\u0259 olaca\u011f\u0131 il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 d\u0259qiq analiz yoxdur. Y\u0259ni bu, daha ehtiyatl\u0131 bir m\u00f6vqedir.<\/p>\n

Misal \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn, Rusiya prezidenti Vladimir Putin Erm\u0259nistan prezidenti Serj Sarqsyanla bir ne\u00e7\u0259 ay \u0259vv\u0259l ba\u015f tutan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc zaman\u0131 bildirib ki, A\u0130B-\u0259 daxil olandan sonra Erm\u0259nistan\u0131n \u00dcDM-si 10% art\u0131b. \u0130qtisad\u00e7\u0131lar v\u0259 statistika \u00fczr\u0259 m\u00fct\u0259x\u0259ssisl\u0259r jurnalistl\u0259rl\u0259 birlikd\u0259 h\u0259l\u0259 d\u0259 bu r\u0259q\u0259min haradan al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anlama\u011fa \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n

10 g\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6zl\u0259m\u0259d\u0259n<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Serj Sarqsyan\u0131n qeyd etdiyi 10 g\u00fcn h\u0259l\u0259 ke\u00e7m\u0259yib, 2016-c\u0131 ilin n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259ri \u00fcmumil\u0259\u015fdirilm\u0259yib, amma 10 ay\u0131n m\u0259lumatlar\u0131 \u0259sas\u0131nda m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259r \u00e7\u0131xarmaq olar.<\/p>\n

Amma \u00f6nc\u0259 bir s\u0131ra \u0259sas iqtisadi g\u00f6st\u0259ricil\u0259ri t\u0259qdim ed\u0259k: A\u0130B-\u0259 qo\u015fulana q\u0259d\u0259r n\u0259yimiz vard\u0131, daxil olan zaman n\u0259y\u0259 sahib idik v\u0259 bu ill\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 hans\u0131 proqnozlar var.<\/p>\n

\"chart<\/p>\n

2014-c\u00fc ild\u0259 iqtisadi art\u0131m 3,5% t\u0259\u015fkil edib. Erm\u0259nistan\u0131n A\u0130B-\u0259 \u00fczv oldu\u011fu birinci il, y\u0259ni 2015-ci ild\u0259 art\u0131m 3% azald\u0131.<\/p>\n

Bu il \u00f6nc\u0259d\u0259n 2,1% iqtisadi art\u0131m planla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rd\u0131, amma son aylar\u0131n hadis\u0259l\u0259ri g\u00f6st\u0259rir ki, bunu g\u00f6zl\u0259m\u0259y\u0259 d\u0259ym\u0259z. Erm\u0259nistan\u0131n iqtisadi f\u0259all\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n s\u0259viyy\u0259si (\u00dcDM art\u0131m\u0131 il\u0259 qar\u0131\u015fd\u0131rmayaq) 2016-c\u0131 ilin yanvar-oktyabr aylar\u0131nda 2015-ci ilin analoji d\u00f6vr\u00fc il\u0259 m\u00fcqayis\u0259d\u0259 0,4% t\u0259\u015fkil edib. Y\u0259ni ilin ilk 10 ay\u0131 \u0259rzind\u0259 iqtisadi f\u0259all\u0131q c\u0259mi 0,4% art\u0131b. Bundan \u0259lav\u0259, bu ilin oktyabr ay\u0131nda \u00f6t\u0259n ilin oktyabr ay\u0131 il\u0259 m\u00fcqayis\u0259d\u0259 f\u0259all\u0131q daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 olub. \u00d6lk\u0259nin \u00dcDM-si is\u0259 2016-c\u0131 ilin \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc r\u00fcb\u00fcnd\u0259 \u00f6t\u0259n ilin analoji d\u00f6vr\u00fc il\u0259 m\u00fcqayis\u0259d\u0259 2,6% azal\u0131b.<\/p>\n

Oxucular\u0131 iqtisadi terminologiya il\u0259 y\u00fckl\u0259m\u0259d\u0259n qeyd ed\u0259k ki, Erm\u0259nistanda bu c\u00fcr a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6st\u0259ricil\u0259r 2009-c\u0131 ild\u0259 ba\u015f ver\u0259n b\u00f6hrandan sonra olmay\u0131b. Qeyd olunan g\u00f6st\u0259ricil\u0259rin dinamikas\u0131n\u0131 n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 alaraq dey\u0259 bil\u0259rik ki, ilin yekunlar\u0131na g\u00f6r\u0259 \u00f6lk\u0259d\u0259 \u00e7ox g\u00fcman ki, s\u0131f\u0131r art\u0131m olacaq, h\u0259tta iqtisadi azalma da istisna deyil.<\/p>\n

Erm\u0259nistan \u00dcDM-si dramla artsa da, dollar ekvivalentind\u0259 2015 v\u0259 2016-c\u0131 ill\u0259rd\u0259 o 2014-c\u00fc ild\u0259n daha azd\u0131r.<\/p>\n

2014-c\u00fc ild\u0259n ba\u015flayaraq Erm\u0259nistana fiziki \u015f\u0259xsl\u0259r (v\u0259 ya transfertl\u0259r) t\u0259r\u0259find\u0259n g\u00f6nd\u0259ril\u0259n pul k\u00f6\u00e7\u00fcrm\u0259l\u0259rinin h\u0259cminin azalmas\u0131 indiy\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r davam edir.<\/p>\n

2015-ci ild\u0259 transfertl\u0259rin ax\u0131n\u0131 2014-c\u00fc ill\u0259 m\u00fcqayis\u0259d\u0259 23,1% v\u0259 ya 492 milyon dollar azal\u0131b. O c\u00fcml\u0259d\u0259n, Rusiyadan pul ax\u0131n\u0131 35% v\u0259 ya 546 milyon dollar azal\u0131b. 2016-c\u0131 ild\u0259 azalma templ\u0259ri d\u00fc\u015fs\u0259 d\u0259, \u00fcmumi v\u0259ziyy\u0259t d\u0259yi\u015fm\u0259yib. 2016-c\u0131 ilin yanvar-oktyabr aylar\u0131nda Erm\u0259nistana, fiziki \u015f\u0259xsl\u0259r\u0259 bank sistemi vasit\u0259sil\u0259 1 milyard 336,1 milyon AB\u015e dollar\u0131 g\u00f6nd\u0259rilib. \u00d6t\u0259n ilin yanvar-oktyabr aylar\u0131 il\u0259 m\u00fcqayis\u0259d\u0259 transfertl\u0259rin ax\u0131n\u0131 138,4 milyon dollar v\u0259 ya 10,4% azal\u0131b.<\/p>\n

Noyabr-dekabr aylar\u0131nda da eni\u015f eyni templ\u0259 davam ets\u0259, 2016-c\u0131 ild\u0259 transfer ax\u0131n\u0131 1,5 milyard dollardan art\u0131q olmayacaq. Y\u0259ni ax\u0131n 2009-cu b\u00f6hran ilind\u0259n az olacaq.<\/p>\n

M\u00fcqayis\u0259 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn qeyd ed\u0259k ki, 2013-c\u00fc ild\u0259 Erm\u0259nistana 2,3 milyard dollar g\u00f6nd\u0259rilib. Bu o dem\u0259kdir ki, bu il k\u00f6\u00e7\u00fcrm\u0259l\u0259r 800 milyon dollar az olacaq. Erm\u0259nistan \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn 800 milyon dollar\u0131n n\u0259 dem\u0259k oldu\u011funu anlamaq \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn dey\u0259k ki, \u00f6lk\u0259 b\u00fcdc\u0259si t\u0259xmin\u0259n 2,5 milyard dollar t\u0259\u015fkil edir.<\/p>\n

\"chart<\/p>\n

Maraql\u0131d\u0131r ki, bu il faiz nisb\u0259tind\u0259 Erm\u0259nistana A\u0130B-\u0259 \u00fczv olan \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rd\u0259n \u2013 Qazax\u0131stan v\u0259 Rusiyadan g\u00f6nd\u0259ril\u0259n m\u0259bl\u0259\u011fl\u0259r daha \u00e7ox azal\u0131b. V\u0259 \u0259ksin\u0259, \u0259ks istiqam\u0259td\u0259 – Erm\u0259nistandan Rusiya v\u0259 Qazax\u0131stana k\u00f6\u00e7\u00fcrm\u0259l\u0259r o biril\u0259rind\u0259n daha \u00e7ox art\u0131b.<\/p>\n

Bundan ba\u015fqa, 2016-c\u0131 ilin yanvar-sentyabr aylar\u0131nda Erm\u0259nistan iqtisadiyyat\u0131n\u0131n real sektorunda xarici s\u0259rmay\u0259l\u0259r 70%-d\u0259n \u00e7ox azal\u0131b. Burada da azalman\u0131n b\u00f6y\u00fck hiss\u0259si m\u0259hz Rusiya s\u0259rmay\u0259l\u0259rinin pay\u0131na d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr.<\/p>\n

B\u00fct\u00fcn bunlardan sonra da art\u0131q t\u0259\u0259cc\u00fcbl\u00fc deyil ki, Erm\u0259nistanda s\u00fcr\u0259tl\u0259 artan ancaq d\u00f6vl\u0259t borcudur. 2014-c\u00fc ild\u0259 o, 4,4 milyard dollar, 2015-ci ild\u0259 5,08 milyard dollar t\u0259\u015fkil edib, 2016-c\u0131 ild\u0259 is\u0259 r\u0259smi olaraq art\u0131q 5,8 milyard dollar olaca\u011f\u0131 \u00a0planla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131l\u0131r. 2017-ci ild\u0259 d\u00f6vl\u0259t borcu 6,3 milyard dollara yax\u0131nla\u015facaq v\u0259 \u00dcDM-nin 54%-ni t\u0259\u015fkil ed\u0259c\u0259k.<\/p>\n

D\u00f6vl\u0259t borcu n\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r \u00e7ox olarsa, ona xidm\u0259t\u0259 (faiz) o q\u0259d\u0259r d\u0259 \u00e7ox pul ged\u0259c\u0259k. Buna g\u00f6r\u0259 d\u0259 t\u0259\u0259cc\u00fcbl\u00fc deyil ki, 2017-ci ild\u0259 b\u00fcdc\u0259d\u0259n d\u00f6vl\u0259t borcunun xidm\u0259tin\u0259 istiqam\u0259tl\u0259n\u0259n m\u0259bl\u0259\u011fl\u0259r artacaq, misal \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn, t\u0259qa\u00fcd v\u0259 yard\u0131mlar is\u0259 yox.<\/p>\n

Siyah\u0131n\u0131 sonsuza q\u0259d\u0259r davam etdirm\u0259k olar. Bununla bel\u0259, Erm\u0259nistan\u0131n A\u0130B-\u0259 \u00fczvl\u00fcy\u00fcn\u00fc iqtisadi g\u00f6st\u0259ricil\u0259r \u00fczr\u0259 qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirs\u0259k, \u201c\u00fcmidl\u0259r do\u011frulmad\u0131\u201d ifad\u0259si \u00e7ox yum\u015faq s\u0259sl\u0259nir.<\/p>\n

\u00a0Erm\u0259nistan-A\u0130B ticar\u0259ti haqq\u0131nda<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Erm\u0259nistan\u0131n A\u0130B-\u0259 daxil olmas\u0131 ilk n\u00f6vb\u0259d\u0259, ticar\u0259t d\u00f6vriyy\u0259sin\u0259 m\u00fcsb\u0259t t\u0259sir g\u00f6st\u0259rm\u0259li idi. Amma bu yerd\u0259 h\u0259r hans\u0131 qiym\u0259t verm\u0259k \u00e7ox \u00e7\u0259tindir, \u00e7\u00fcnki ticar\u0259t\u0259 bir \u00e7ox amill\u0259r t\u0259sir g\u00f6st\u0259rdi. Misal \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn, 2014-c\u00fc ilin sonlar\u0131nda Rusiya rublunun qiym\u0259td\u0259n d\u00fc\u015fm\u0259si erm\u0259ni ixracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn ciddi \u00e7\u0259tinlikl\u0259r yaratd\u0131: erm\u0259ni mal\u0131 bahala\u015fd\u0131 v\u0259 r\u0259qab\u0259t apara bilm\u0259di.<\/p>\n

H\u0259r halda Erm\u0259nistanla A\u0130B aras\u0131nda ticar\u0259t m\u00fcnasib\u0259tl\u0259ri haqq\u0131nda dan\u0131\u015fmaq yersizdir, \u00e7\u00fcnki Rusiyadan ba\u015fqa, dig\u0259r \u00fc\u00e7 t\u0259r\u0259fda\u015fla ticar\u0259t h\u0259cmi \u00e7ox ki\u00e7ikdir.<\/p>\n

Bel\u0259 ki, 2016-c\u0131 ilin yanvar-oktyabr aylar\u0131 \u0259rzind\u0259 Erm\u0259nistanla A\u0130B \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259ri aras\u0131nda ticar\u0259t d\u00f6vriyy\u0259sinin h\u0259cmi t\u0259xmin\u0259n 1,1 milyard dollar t\u0259\u015fkil edib ki, onun da 1,08 milyard\u0131 Rusiyan\u0131n pay\u0131na d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr.<\/p>\n

Belarusla ticar\u0259t d\u00f6vriyy\u0259sinin h\u0259cmi 29,8 milyon dollar, Qazax\u0131stanla is\u0259 5,8 milyon dollar t\u0259\u015fkil edib. Q\u0131r\u011f\u0131z\u0131stanla ticar\u0259t d\u00f6vriyy\u0259si is\u0259 o q\u0259d\u0259r c\u00fczidir ki, Erm\u0259nistan\u0131n 40 \u00f6lk\u0259 haqq\u0131nda m\u0259lumat\u0131 \u0259ks etdir\u0259n xarici ticar\u0259t \u00fczr\u0259 r\u0259smi statistikas\u0131nda ayr\u0131ca b\u0259ndl\u0259 qeyd olunmur (bu il Q\u0131r\u011f\u0131z\u0131standan Erm\u0259nistana 10 dollarl\u0131q mal g\u0259tirilib).<\/p>\n

Faiz nisb\u0259tind\u0259 2016-c\u0131 ilin ilk 10 ay\u0131 \u0259rzind\u0259 A\u0130B \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rinin \u00fcz\u0259rin\u0259 Erm\u0259nistan\u0131n b\u00fct\u00fcn ticar\u0259t d\u00f6vriyy\u0259sinin c\u0259mi 27,3%-i d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr (m\u00fcqayis\u0259 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn, Avropa \u0130ttifaq\u0131 \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rinin x\u00fcsusi \u00e7\u0259kisi 24,1% t\u0259\u015fkil edir).<\/p>\n

\"chart<\/p>\n

C\u0259dv\u0259ld\u0259n g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fcy\u00fc kimi, Rusiyan\u0131n pay\u0131 1,7 faiz art\u0131b. \u00d6z\u00fc d\u0259 Erm\u0259nistandan Rusiyaya ixrac\u0131n hesab\u0131na. Bel\u0259 ki, Erm\u0259nistandan Rusiyaya ixrac 52,8% v\u0259 ya 100 milyon dollardan \u00e7ox art\u0131b v\u0259 295 milyon dollar t\u0259\u015fkil edib. \u0130dxal is\u0259 3,3% art\u0131b.<\/p>\n

Bu Erm\u0259nistan \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn m\u00fcsb\u0259t dinamikad\u0131r. Bununla bel\u0259, \u00fcmumilikd\u0259 A\u0130B Erm\u0259nistan \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn ticar\u0259t t\u0259r\u0259fda\u015flar\u0131 aras\u0131nda dan\u0131lmaz lider deyil v\u0259 istisna etm\u0259k olmaz ki, A\u0130-nin pay\u0131 hans\u0131sa m\u0259qamda yen\u0259 d\u0259 ir\u0259li \u00e7\u0131xa bil\u0259r. A\u0130B-in qalan \u00fc\u00e7 \u00fczv\u00fc – Qazax\u0131stan, Belarus v\u0259 Q\u0131r\u011f\u0131z\u0131stana g\u0259linc\u0259, ancaq onu dey\u0259 bil\u0259rik ki, onlar Erm\u0259nistan\u0131n iyirmi apar\u0131c\u0131 ticar\u0259t t\u0259r\u0259fda\u015f\u0131 siyah\u0131s\u0131na bel\u0259 daxil deyil.<\/p>\n

A\u0130B-\u0259 \u00fczv olmasayd\u0131q n\u0259 olard\u0131?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Bu sual Erm\u0259nistan\u0131n Avrasiya \u0130qtisadi Birliyin\u0259 daxil olmas\u0131 bar\u0259d\u0259 r\u0259smi b\u0259yanat verildiyi 3 sentyabr 2013-c\u00fc il tarixind\u0259n etibar\u0259n d\u0259f\u0259l\u0259rl\u0259 s\u0259sl\u0259nib. Amma bu sual daha \u00e7ox \u00a0siyasi v\u0259 geosiyasi m\u00fcst\u0259vil\u0259rd\u0259 dil\u0259 g\u0259tirilib v\u0259 \u0259sas\u0259n Erm\u0259nistan\u0131n t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259sizliyi il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259l\u0259r\u0259 aid olub.<\/p>\n

Misal \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn, \u00fczv olmama\u011f\u0131n iqtisadi c\u0259h\u0259td\u0259n s\u0259m\u0259r\u0259li olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u0259nl\u0259r \u0259sas amil kimi qaz\u0131n qiym\u0259tini g\u00f6st\u0259rir. Y\u0259ni qaz xeyli baha ba\u015fa g\u0259l\u0259c\u0259k.<\/p>\n

\u018fslind\u0259 is\u0259 bu \u0259laq\u0259ni qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirm\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn ciddi t\u0259hlil\u0259 ehtiyac var. V\u0259 bel\u0259 bir t\u0259hlil h\u0259yata ke\u00e7irilib. Beyn\u0259lxalq \u0130qtisadi \u0130nteqrasiya v\u0259 \u0130slahatlar Nazirliyi 2015-ci ilin birinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda A\u0130B-\u0259 \u00fczv olma\u011f\u0131n Erm\u0259nistana nec\u0259 t\u0259sir etdiyini m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n etm\u0259k ist\u0259mi\u015fdi. T\u0259dqiqat \u201cAvaq sol\u00fc\u015fns\u201d analitik m\u0259rk\u0259zin\u0259 tap\u015f\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015fd\u0131.<\/p>\n

46 s\u0259hif\u0259lik s\u0259n\u0259d \u00f6lk\u0259nin A\u0130B-\u0259 daxil olmas\u0131n\u0131n t\u0259sirini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131dak\u0131 istiqam\u0259tl\u0259r \u00fczr\u0259 qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirdi: ixrac, idxal, s\u0259rmay\u0259, transfer. Misal \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn, ixrac m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259sind\u0259 ekspertl\u0259r qar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131dak\u0131 kimi qoyulmu\u015fdu: Erm\u0259nistan A\u0130B \u00fczv\u00fc olmasayd\u0131, Erm\u0259nistan\u0131n ixrac\u0131 n\u0259 v\u0259ziyy\u0259td\u0259 olard\u0131? Q\u0131sa des\u0259k, n\u0259tic\u0259 bel\u0259 oldu: A\u0130B-\u0259 \u00fczvl\u00fck daha neqativ prosesl\u0259rd\u0259n qa\u00e7maq imkan\u0131 ver\u0259n vacib amildir. Y\u0259ni ixrac A\u0130B-\u0259 \u00fczv olmaqdan udmay\u0131b, amma \u0259ks halda v\u0259ziyy\u0259t daha ac\u0131nacaql\u0131 ola bil\u0259rdi.<\/p>\n

\u0130dxal sah\u0259sind\u0259 t\u0259bii qaza x\u00fcsusi diqq\u0259t yetirilmi\u015fdi. \u201cErm\u0259nistan A\u0130B \u00fczv\u00fc olmasayd\u0131, haz\u0131rda \u00f6lk\u0259y\u0259 idxal olunan qaz\u0131n qiym\u0259ti 2013-c\u00fc ilin s\u0259viyy\u0259sind\u0259 ola bil\u0259rdi \u2013 1000 kub metr\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259 t\u0259xmin\u0259n 280 dollar\u201d, – s\u0259n\u0259dd\u0259 qeyd olunub.<\/p>\n

Xarici s\u0259rmay\u0259l\u0259rl\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u0259n\u0259dd\u0259 deyilir ki, A\u0130B-\u0259 inteqrasiyan\u0131n m\u00fcsb\u0259t t\u0259siri olmay\u0131b. 2015-ci ilin birinci yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259rin\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259, h\u0259m \u00fcmumilikd\u0259 birba\u015fa s\u0259rmay\u0259l\u0259r, h\u0259m d\u0259 Rusiyan\u0131n onlarda pay\u0131 k\u0259skin \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 azal\u0131b. M\u00fc\u0259llifl\u0259r s\u0259mimi \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 etiraf edibl\u0259r ki, ad\u0259t\u0259n inteqrasiya prosesl\u0259ri \u00f6lk\u0259y\u0259 \u0259lav\u0259 maraq yarad\u0131r, s\u0259rmay\u0259l\u0259r\u0259 m\u00fcsb\u0259t t\u0259sir g\u00f6st\u0259rir. \u00a0Amma Erm\u0259nistan A\u0130B-\u0259 \u00fczv olandan sonra \u00f6lk\u0259d\u0259 bel\u0259 bir tendensiya m\u00fc\u015fahid\u0259 olunmay\u0131b.<\/p>\n

Pul k\u00f6\u00e7\u00fcrm\u0259l\u0259ri il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 qeyd olunur ki, A\u0130B \u00fczvl\u0259ri olan Erm\u0259nistan v\u0259 Belarusa pul k\u00f6\u00e7\u00fcrm\u0259l\u0259ri Az\u0259rbaycan v\u0259 Q\u0131r\u011f\u0131z\u0131standan daha az olub. Bu onu dem\u0259y\u0259 imkan verir ki, transfertl\u0259r m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259sind\u0259 A\u0130B-d\u0259 \u00fczvl\u00fck h\u0259l\u0259 \u0259lveri\u015fli m\u00fchit formala\u015fd\u0131rmay\u0131b.<\/p>\n

Erm\u0259nistan\u0131n A\u0130B-\u0259 \u00fczvl\u00fckd\u0259n uddu\u011fu yegan\u0259 istiqam\u0259t idxala qoyulan g\u00f6mr\u00fck r\u00fcsumlar\u0131 olub (\u00fczv olmamaqla m\u00fcqayis\u0259d\u0259 t\u0259xmin\u0259n 20% \u00e7ox). Bir az qaba\u011fa ged\u0259r\u0259k dey\u0259k ki, cari ild\u0259 bu istiqam\u0259t d\u0259 sevinm\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn \u0259sas verm\u0259yib.<\/p>\n

B\u00fct\u00fcn bunlara baxmayaraq, t\u0259hlilin m\u00fc\u0259llifl\u0259ri A\u0130B-i o q\u0259d\u0259r d\u0259 \u201cdanlamama\u011fa\u201d \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131blar v\u0259 f\u0259slin sonunda qeyd edibl\u0259r ki, ilk alt\u0131 ay\u0131n n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259rin\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259, faktiki olaraq t\u0259dqiq olunan iqtisadi v\u0259ziyy\u0259t problemlidir, amma n\u0259z\u0259rd\u0259n ke\u00e7iril\u0259n tendensiyalar \u00e7\u0259tin ki, inteqrasiya prosesl\u0259ri il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 olsun.<\/p>\n

Bir s\u00f6zl\u0259, hesabat he\u00e7 bir m\u00fcsb\u0259t ir\u0259lil\u0259yi\u015fi \u00fcz\u0259 \u00e7\u0131xarmay\u0131b v\u0259 ola bilsin m\u0259hz buna g\u00f6r\u0259 d\u0259 g\u0259l\u0259n il art\u0131q bel\u0259 bir hesabat apar\u0131lmayacaq.<\/p>\n

Erm\u0259nistan c\u0259miyy\u0259ti A\u0130B-\u0259 \u00fczvl\u00fckd\u0259n n\u0259 g\u00f6zl\u0259yir?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u00c7\u0259tin suald\u0131r. \u00dcmumiyy\u0259tl\u0259 bu m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259nin \u0259h\u0259miyy\u0259tliliyinin \u015fi\u015firdildiyini dem\u0259k m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr. 2013-c\u00fc ild\u0259 Erm\u0259nistan\u0131n A\u0130B-\u0259 daxil olmaq niyy\u0259ti bar\u0259d\u0259 b\u0259yan edil\u0259nd\u0259 he\u00e7 kim c\u0259miyy\u0259tin fikrini x\u0259b\u0259r almam\u0131\u015fd\u0131. Q\u0259rar onun \u0259v\u0259zin\u0259 q\u0259bul olunmu\u015fdu. Bundan bir ay \u0259vv\u0259l inadla A\u0130B-\u0259 qat\u0131lman\u0131n \u00fcmumi s\u0259rh\u0259dl\u0259rinin b\u0259lli olmamas\u0131 s\u0259b\u0259bind\u0259n m\u0259qs\u0259d\u0259uy\u011fun say\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcbut etm\u0259y\u0259 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan hakimiyy\u0259t sentyabr\u0131n 3-d\u0259n sonra eyni h\u0259v\u0259sl\u0259 izah etm\u0259y\u0259 ba\u015flad\u0131 ki, bu, iqtisadi n\u00f6qteyi-n\u0259z\u0259rind\u0259n xeyli s\u0259rf\u0259lidir v\u0259 Erm\u0259nistan\u0131n qar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 180 milyonluq bazar\u0131n qap\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131r (halbuki bu bazar el\u0259 \u0259vv\u0259ll\u0259r d\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 deyildi).<\/p>\n

Bu s\u0259tirl\u0259rin yaz\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 vaxt art\u0131q ikinci h\u0259ft\u0259dir ki, pis hava \u015f\u0259raitin\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259 y\u00fck ma\u015f\u0131nlar\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn Erm\u0259nistan\u0131 A\u0130B \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259ri il\u0259 ba\u011flayan yegan\u0259 quru yol olan Lars-Stepantsminda yolu ba\u011flan\u0131b. Y\u00fczl\u0259rl\u0259 y\u00fck ma\u015f\u0131n\u0131 Erm\u0259nistandan Rusiyaya v\u0259 \u0259ksin\u0259 h\u0259r\u0259k\u0259t ed\u0259 bilmir. Y\u0259ni bu g\u00fcn faktiki olaraq t\u0259k Erm\u0259nistan \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn 180 milyonluq bazar deyil, h\u0259m d\u0259 A\u0130B \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn ki\u00e7ik 3 milyonluq erm\u0259ni bazar\u0131 da ba\u011flan\u0131b.<\/p>\n

Bu \u015f\u0259rtl\u0259r daxilind\u0259 is\u0259 Erm\u0259nistan c\u0259miyy\u0259ti \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn \u00e7ox g\u00fcman ki, daha aktual g\u00f6zl\u0259nti hava \u015f\u0259raitinin yax\u015f\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u0130ndi Erm\u0259nistan\u0131n da cavab\u0131 \u0259traf\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcy\u00fc suala dair JAMnews-un detall\u0131 analizi<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":23,"featured_media":19324,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[27,22,8,2,5,4],"tags":[33],"formation":[],"post-author":[3593],"topic":[],"tooltip":[],"city":[6054],"class_list":["post-4387","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ermnistan","category-iqtisadiyyat","category-dunyada-bas-vernlr","category-cografiya","category-siyast","category-rusiya","tag-ermnistan","post-author-babken-tunyan-yerevan","city-yerevan"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nErm\u0259nistan-AA\u0130\u0130. \u0130ki illik \u00fczvl\u00fck n\u0259 verdi \u2013 y\u00fcks\u0259li\u015f, yoxsa eni\u015f? - JAMnews<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, 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