{"id":3791,"date":"2015-12-28T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2015-12-28T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/jam-news.net\/az\/az%c9%99rbaycan-manatini-n%c9%99l%c9%99r-gozl%c9%99yir\/"},"modified":"2020-03-18T10:51:02","modified_gmt":"2020-03-18T10:51:02","slug":"az%c9%99rbaycan-manatini-n%c9%99l%c9%99r-gozl%c9%99yir","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jam-news.net\/az\/az%c9%99rbaycan-manatini-n%c9%99l%c9%99r-gozl%c9%99yir\/","title":{"rendered":"Az\u0259rbaycan manat\u0131n\u0131 n\u0259l\u0259r g\u00f6zl\u0259yir?"},"content":{"rendered":"

2015-ci ilin n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259rin\u0259 gör\u0259 Az\u0259rbaycan\u0131n iqtisadi göst\u0259ricil\u0259ri son ill\u0259rd\u0259, h\u0259tta dünyan\u0131n \u0259ks\u0259r ölk\u0259l\u0259rinin problem ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 2008-2009-cu ill\u0259rl\u0259 müqayis\u0259d\u0259, pisl\u0259\u015fib.<\/span><\/p>\n

Az\u0259rbaycan Respublikas\u0131n\u0131n M\u0259rk\u0259zi Bank\u0131 (ARMB) fevral ay\u0131nda \u015fok q\u0259rar q\u0259bul etdi. Bir gec\u0259nin içind\u0259 milli valyuta olan manat AB\u015e dollar\u0131na nisb\u0259td\u0259 30 faizd\u0259n art\u0131q ucuzla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131: 1 dollar – 0.78 manat s\u0259viyy\u0259sind\u0259n 1 dollar – 1.05 manat s\u0259viyy\u0259sin\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r. Milli bank bunu Az\u0259rbaycan iqtisadiyyat\u0131n\u0131n qeyri-neft sektorunun ixracat\u0131n\u0131n stimulla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 z\u0259ruriyy\u0259ti il\u0259 \u0259laq\u0259l\u0259ndirdi.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Bu arqument bazar i\u015ftirakç\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 ruhland\u0131rmad\u0131; bel\u0259 ki, Az\u0259rbaycan g\u0259lirl\u0259rinin 90 faizini neft v\u0259 qaz sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 t\u0259\u015fkil edir. “Buludlu ill\u0259rd\u0259 qeyri-neft sektorunu qlobal iqtisadiyat\u0131n k\u0259skin neft qiym\u0259ti ucuzla\u015fmas\u0131 il\u0259 qar\u015f\u0131la\u015fd\u0131\u011f\u0131 “quraql\u0131q ill\u0259rin\u0259 haz\u0131rlamaq mümkün olmad\u0131.<\/span><\/p>\n

Manat\u0131n m\u0259z\u0259nn\u0259sin\u0259 t\u0259zyiq göst\u0259r\u0259n karbohidrogenl\u0259rin qiym\u0259tinin ucuz olmas\u0131 v\u0259 respublikan\u0131n valyuta ehtiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n h\u0259cminin azalmas\u0131 \u0259sas iki amill\u0259rdir. \u0130lin aral\u0131q n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259ri ümidverici deyil. Neftin qiym\u0259ti bir barrel üçün 50 dollardan az olaraq qal\u0131r, milli valyuta ehtiyatlar\u0131 üç d\u0259f\u0259d\u0259n çox azal\u0131b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bu göst\u0259ricil\u0259r h\u0259m yerli, h\u0259m beyn\u0259lxalq ekspertl\u0259rin devalvasiyan\u0131n ikinci dal\u011fas\u0131n\u0131n qaç\u0131n\u0131lmaz oldu\u011funu proqnozla\u015fd\u0131rma\u011fa \u015f\u0259rait yarad\u0131r. Fikirl\u0259r aras\u0131nda yegan\u0259 f\u0259rq: ARMB yenid\u0259n milli valyuta m\u0259z\u0259nn\u0259sinin k\u0259skin devalvasiyas\u0131na ged\u0259c\u0259k, yoxsa yum\u015faq n\u0259zar\u0259t olunacaq devalvasiyaya m\u0131 üstünlük ver\u0259c\u0259k?<\/span><\/p>\n

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Az\u0259rbaycan büdc\u0259sinin 2015-ci il üçün doldurulmas\u0131 n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 çarpacaq probleml\u0259rl\u0259 keçdi. 2016-c\u0131 ilin büdc\u0259si is\u0259 1\/4 az olmaqla t\u0259sdiql\u0259ndi. T\u0259m\u0259l r\u0259q\u0259m olan neftin qiym\u0259ti 50 dollar civar\u0131nda gözl\u0259nilir. Lakin bazar bu s\u0259viyy\u0259y\u0259 heç cür çatmayacaq. Bu yax\u0131nlarda OPEK-in kvotalar\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131 v\u0259 \u0130rana qar\u015f\u0131 sanksiyalar\u0131n l\u0259\u011fv olunmas\u0131n\u0131 n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 alsaq, manat\u0131n m\u0259z\u0259nn\u0259sinin daha da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 dü\u015fm\u0259si t\u0259hlük\u0259si var.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bütün ili ölk\u0259 bazar\u0131 silk\u0259l\u0259ndi. ARMB-n\u0131n fevral q\u0259rar\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 d\u0259rhal banklardan ç\u0131xartma\u011fa v\u0259 ya xarici valyutaya çevirm\u0259y\u0259 at\u0131lan \u0259hali aras\u0131nda t\u0259\u015fvi\u015f\u0259 g\u0259tirib ç\u0131xartd\u0131. M\u0259s\u0259l\u0259n, dollarla yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n h\u0259cmi iki d\u0259f\u0259 artd\u0131. Bundan \u0259lav\u0259, bütün dövl\u0259t Tarif \u015euras\u0131n\u0131n (T\u015e enerjida\u015f\u0131y\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131, n\u0259qliyyat xidm\u0259tl\u0259ri, çör\u0259k v\u0259 siyah\u0131s\u0131 m\u0259hdud olan dig\u0259r strateji m\u0259hsul v\u0259 xidm\u0259tl\u0259r\u0259 n\u0259zar\u0259t edir) n\u0259zar\u0259t etm\u0259diyi m\u0259hsul v\u0259 xidm\u0259tl\u0259rin qiym\u0259ti artd\u0131.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u0130dxalç\u0131lar qiym\u0259t art\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 ölk\u0259y\u0259 g\u0259tirdikl\u0259ri m\u0259hsullar\u0131n xarici valyuta il\u0259 al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131yla \u0259laq\u0259l\u0259ndirs\u0259 d\u0259, yerli istehsalç\u0131lar (onlar \u0259sas\u0259n qida v\u0259 xidm\u0259tl\u0259r sektorunu t\u0259msil edirl\u0259r) bunu ayd\u0131n arqumentl\u0259rl\u0259 \u0259sasland\u0131ra bilm\u0259dil\u0259r. N\u0259tic\u0259d\u0259 hakimiyy\u0259t spekulyasiya il\u0259 mübariz\u0259 elan etdi; bu kiçik dal\u011falarla yerl\u0259rd\u0259 bir d\u0259f\u0259lik effekt vers\u0259 d\u0259, ümumi bahala\u015fman\u0131n qar\u015f\u0131s\u0131n ala bilm\u0259di.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Hakimiyy\u0259t korrupsiya v\u0259 monopoliya il\u0259 mübariz\u0259nin yeni v\u0259 s\u0259rt fazas\u0131n\u0131 da elan etdi. Bu da q\u0131sa zamanda u\u011furlu n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259r\u0259 g\u0259tirib ç\u0131xara bilm\u0259zdi, bel\u0259 ki, h\u0259r iki göst\u0259ril\u0259n m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259 bu probleml\u0259rl\u0259 mübariz\u0259 aparmal\u0131 olan insanlar\u0131n el\u0259 özü il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r. \u0130qtisadiyyat\u0131n liberalla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 oliqarxlar\u0131n pozisiyas\u0131n\u0131n möhk\u0259m oldu\u011fu mühitd\u0259 ç\u0259tin bir prosessdir, h\u0259tta siyasi irad\u0259 nümayi\u015f etdiril\u0259rs\u0259 bel\u0259.<\/span><\/p>\n

Xüsusil\u0259 d\u0259 ona gör\u0259 ki, qeyri-neft iqtisadiyyat\u0131n\u0131n inki\u015faf\u0131 z\u0259ifdir. M\u0259s\u0259l\u0259n, ölk\u0259 r\u0259smi olaraq \u0259rzaq idxal\u0131ndan 45 faiz, d\u0259rman, paltar v\u0259 m\u0259i\u015f\u0259t texnikas\u0131 idxal\u0131ndan is\u0259, dem\u0259k olar ki, 100 faiz as\u0131l\u0131d\u0131r. Az\u0259rbaycan k\u0259nd t\u0259s\u0259rrüfat\u0131 m\u0259hsullar\u0131ndan heç birinin yerli istehsal\u0131n\u0131 100 faiz t\u0259min ed\u0259 bilm\u0259yib.<\/span><\/p>\n

Yaranm\u0131\u015f probleml\u0259r x\u0259rcl\u0259rin yenid\u0259n bax\u0131lmas\u0131na, ehtiyatlar\u0131n yoxlan\u0131lmas\u0131na v\u0259 alternativ g\u0259lir m\u0259nb\u0259l\u0259rinin axtar\u0131\u015f\u0131na g\u0259tirib ç\u0131xartd\u0131. Bu fonda beyn\u0259lxalq rezonans yaratm\u0131\u015f Az\u0259rbaycan Beyn\u0259lxalq Bank\u0131yla ba\u011fl\u0131 qalmaqal ba\u015flad\u0131. Bazar\u0131n lideri olan Az\u0259rbaycan Beyn\u0259lxalq Bank\u0131n\u0131n bazarda pay\u0131 40 faiz t\u0259\u015fkil edir. Bu maliyy\u0259 strukturu sistem \u0259h\u0259miyy\u0259tli bank hesab olunur. Qalmaqal dövrün\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r Az\u0259rbaycan Beyn\u0259lxalq Bank\u0131n\u0131n pay\u0131na kredit yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n 1\/3 hiss\u0259si v\u0259 depozit yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n 1\/4 hiss\u0259si dü\u015fürdü.<\/span><\/p>\n

M\u0259lum oldu ki, bank\u0131n r\u0259hb\u0259rliyi onlarla i\u015f adam\u0131na \u0259sas h\u0259cmi t\u0259yinat\u0131 üzr\u0259 x\u0259rcl\u0259nm\u0259y\u0259n milliardlarla dollar verib. Bank\u0131n r\u0259hb\u0259ri i\u015fd\u0259n ç\u0131xarlm\u0131\u015f v\u0259 art\u0131q ilin sonunda h\u0259bs edilmi\u015fdi. Götürdük\u0259ri m\u0259bl\u0259\u011f il\u0259 müqayis\u0259d\u0259 kiçik bir qism pul öd\u0259mi\u015f v\u0259 borcun yerd\u0259 qalan\u0131n\u0131 \u0259ld\u0259 etm\u0259k üçün burax\u0131lm\u0131\u015f “kredit oliqarxlar\u0131 da saxlan\u0131lmalarla üzl\u0259\u015fdil\u0259r. Onlar\u0131n ikinci bir hiss\u0259si h\u0259l\u0259 d\u0259 h\u0259bsd\u0259dir.<\/span><\/p>\n

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2015-ci ild\u0259 iki nazirin – Milli T\u0259hlük\u0259sizlik Nazirinin v\u0259 Rabit\u0259 v\u0259 Yüks\u0259k Texnologiyalar Nazirinin, el\u0259c\u0259 d\u0259 onlar\u0131n çevr\u0259sind\u0259n olan nüfuzlu \u015f\u0259xsl\u0259rin i\u015fd\u0259n ç\u0131xar\u0131lmas\u0131 il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 ikinci iri qalmaqal ya\u015fand\u0131. Yüks\u0259k rütb\u0259li m\u0259murlar Cinay\u0259t M\u0259c\u0259ll\u0259sinin bir s\u0131ra madd\u0259l\u0259riyl\u0259 ittiham olundu; iqtisadi bax\u0131mdan bu madd\u0259l\u0259rd\u0259n vacibi “v\u0259zif\u0259d\u0259n sui-istifad\u0259dir. \u0130ttihamlara \u0259sas\u0259n, Az\u0259rbaycan\u0131n xüsusi xidm\u0259t orqanlar\u0131n\u0131n bir neç\u0259 general\u0131 uzun ill\u0259r i\u015f adamlar\u0131ndan qanunsuz t\u0259l\u0259b etm\u0259l\u0259rl\u0259 v\u0259 öz biznes imperiyalar\u0131n\u0131 qurmaqla m\u0259\u015f\u011ful olublar. Bundan \u0259lav\u0259 dövl\u0259t maliyy\u0259 v\u0259saiti “harasa yoxa ç\u0131x\u0131b.<\/span>
H\u0259r iki qalmaqal n\u0259tic\u0259sind\u0259 ölk\u0259 iqtisadiyyat\u0131n\u0131n ad\u0131 ç\u0259kil\u0259n insanlar t\u0259r\u0259find\u0259n n\u0259zar\u0259t edil\u0259n hiss\u0259si çökdü. Yüzl\u0259rl\u0259 i\u015f yeri ba\u011fland\u0131. H\u0259l\u0259 ki, i\u015fsizlik art\u0131m\u0131 üzr\u0259 r\u0259smi göst\u0259ricil\u0259r yoxdur, lakin h\u0259tta vizual olaraq ciddi krizis n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 çarp\u0131r. Bak\u0131n\u0131n az qala bütün küç\u0259l\u0259rind\u0259 \u0259vv\u0259ll\u0259r içind\u0259 alver qaynayan \u0259mlak\u0131n icar\u0259y\u0259 verilm\u0259si, dükanlar\u0131n ba\u011flanmas\u0131 haqda elanlar görm\u0259k olur; h\u0259tta dig\u0259r ölk\u0259l\u0259rd\u0259n al\u0131\u015f-veri\u015f üçün bura g\u0259l\u0259n v\u0259 C\u0259nubi Qafqaz\u0131n \u0259n böyük ticar\u0259t m\u0259rk\u0259zl\u0259ri olan “Bin\u0259 v\u0259 “S\u0259d\u0259r\u0259k is\u0259 can üst\u0259dirl\u0259r.<\/span><\/p>\n

Manat\u0131n devalvasiyas\u0131, onun ikinci dal\u011fas\u0131, qiym\u0259t art\u0131m\u0131, i\u015f yerl\u0259rinin ba\u011flanmas\u0131, v\u0259 \u0259n \u0259sas\u0131 – ucuz neft qiym\u0259tl\u0259ri- g\u0259l\u0259c\u0259k yax\u0131n ill\u0259rl\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 ümid vermir.G\u0259l\u0259n il üçün n\u0259z\u0259rd\u0259 tutulan dövl\u0259t x\u0259rcl\u0259rinin 1\/4-ni azaldan ölk\u0259 k\u0259m\u0259rini s\u0131xla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131r. Bir s\u0131ra ekspertl\u0259rin r\u0259yin\u0259 gör\u0259, bu v\u0259ziyy\u0259t Az\u0259rbaycan qaz\u0131n\u0131n iri h\u0259cmd\u0259 Avropa bazarlar\u0131na ç\u0131xard\u0131lma\u011fa ba\u015flanacaq 2020-ci ill\u0259r\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r davam ed\u0259c\u0259k. T\u0259bii ki, dünya bazar\u0131nda \u015f\u0259rait d\u0259yi\u015fm\u0259zs\u0259 v\u0259 Az\u0259rbaycan neftinin barrelinin qiym\u0259ti optimal 80 dollar s\u0259viyy\u0259sin\u0259 qalxmazsa.<\/span><\/p>\n

P.S. Bu m\u0259qal\u0259nin d\u0259rc olundu\u011fu vaxt Az\u0259rbaycan iqtisadiyyat\u0131 manat\u0131n devalvasiyas\u0131n\u0131n ikinci dal\u011fas\u0131n\u0131 ya\u015fad\u0131, hans\u0131 ki, h\u0259m bank sistemin\u0259, h\u0259m öz\u0259l sahibkarl\u0131\u011fa, h\u0259m d\u0259 \u0259halinin ümumi rifah\u0131na z\u0259rb\u0259 endirdi. Ölk\u0259 bu ili yeni xo\u015fag\u0259lm\u0259z sürprizl\u0259ri gözl\u0259m\u0259kl\u0259 yola sal\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00d6lk\u0259 k\u0259m\u0259rini s\u0131xla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131r<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[25],"tags":[],"formation":[],"post-author":[2888],"topic":[],"tooltip":[],"city":[],"class_list":["post-3791","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-cmiyyt","post-author-jamnews"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAz\u0259rbaycan manat\u0131n\u0131 n\u0259l\u0259r g\u00f6zl\u0259yir? - JAMnews<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/jam-news.net\/az\/az\u0259rbaycan-manatini-n\u0259l\u0259r-gozl\u0259yir\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"az_AZ\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" 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