{"id":3438,"date":"2016-09-16T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2016-09-16T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/jam-news.net\/az\/gurcustan-oyuna-n%c9%99-qoyulub\/"},"modified":"2022-01-18T00:39:33","modified_gmt":"2022-01-17T20:39:33","slug":"gurcustan-oyuna-n%c9%99-qoyulub","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jam-news.net\/az\/gurcustan-oyuna-n%c9%99-qoyulub\/","title":{"rendered":"G\u00fcrc\u00fcstan: Oyuna n\u0259 qoyulub?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bel\u0259 hesab edilir ki, seçkil\u0259r suallara cavab verm\u0259lidir. Gürcüstanda 2016-c\u0131 ilin oktyabr ay\u0131nda keçiril\u0259c\u0259k parlament seçkil\u0259ri il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 \u0259n göz qaba\u011f\u0131nda olan sual a\u015fa\u011f\u0131dak\u0131 kimi s\u0259sl\u0259nir: “Yax\u0131n dörd il \u0259rzind\u0259 dövl\u0259ti kim idar\u0259 ed\u0259c\u0259k? 2013-cü ild\u0259n ba\u015flayaraq, Gürcüstanda konstitusiya modeli parlament respublikas\u0131na daha yax\u0131nd\u0131r, buna gör\u0259 d\u0259 seçkil\u0259rin n\u0259tic\u0259si h\u0259m d\u0259 nazirl\u0259r kabinetinin t\u0259rkibini mü\u0259yy\u0259n ed\u0259c\u0259k.<\/span><\/p>\n

H\u0259l\u0259 seçimini etm\u0259y\u0259n böyük sayda seçicil\u0259rin v\u0259 sor\u011fularda suallara cavab verm\u0259k ist\u0259m\u0259y\u0259nl\u0259rin (müxt\u0259lif sor\u011fular\u0131n n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259rin\u0259 \u0259sas\u0259n, 35 faizd\u0259n 55 faiz\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r) olmas\u0131 s\u0259b\u0259bind\u0259n proqnozlar dumanl\u0131 görünür. Bununla bel\u0259, bir neç\u0259 \u0259sas ssenarini sadalamaq mümkündür.      <\/span><\/p>\n

Bu ssenaril\u0259rd\u0259n birin\u0259 \u0259sas\u0259n, hakim “Gürcü arzusu partiyas\u0131 parlamentd\u0259 çoxluq t\u0259\u015fkil edir (150 mandatdan az\u0131 76-s\u0131). Bel\u0259 olan halda biz indi olanlar\u0131n davam\u0131n\u0131 mü\u015fahid\u0259 ed\u0259c\u0259yik: milyarder Bidzina \u0130vani\u015fvili günd\u0259lik idar\u0259çilikl\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 dar\u0131xd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 i\u015fi öz i\u015fçil\u0259rinin, misal üçün ba\u015f nazir Georgi Kvirika\u015fvilinin üstün\u0259 at\u0131b, ölk\u0259nin ümumi istiqam\u0259tini mü\u0259yy\u0259n ed\u0259c\u0259k. Amma hadis\u0259l\u0259r bu cür inki\u015faf etdiyi halda, rejimin legitimliyin\u0259 z\u0259r\u0259r yetiril\u0259 bil\u0259r. “Gürcü arzusunun d\u0259st\u0259yi çox a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 s\u0259viyy\u0259d\u0259dir: hakimiyy\u0259t\u0259 yax\u0131n olan “\u0130medi telekanal\u0131n\u0131n m\u0259lumat\u0131na gör\u0259, partiya üçün \u0259n yax\u015f\u0131 halda bu 36 faiz, Amerika Milli Demokratiya \u0130nstitutunun daha etibarl\u0131 görün\u0259n sor\u011fusunun n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259rin\u0259 gör\u0259 is\u0259 17 faizdir.<\/span><\/p>\n

“Gürcü arzusunun çoxluq \u0259ld\u0259 etm\u0259si çox güman ki, 73 parlamentar\u0131n\u0131n seçil\u0259c\u0259yi birmandatl\u0131 dair\u0259l\u0259r hesab\u0131na olacaq (qalanlar\u0131 partiya siyah\u0131lar\u0131 üzr\u0259 seçil\u0259c\u0259k). Majoritar dair\u0259l\u0259rd\u0259 seçkil\u0259rin n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259ri \u0259n\u0259n\u0259vi olaraq “inzibati resursu c\u0259lb ed\u0259 bil\u0259n hakim partiyan\u0131n namiz\u0259dl\u0259rinin xeyrin\u0259 t\u0259hrif olunur, buna gör\u0259 d\u0259 bu seçkil\u0259rin h\u0259qiq\u0259ti \u0259ks etdirm\u0259diyi hesab olunur. Özünün 2012-ci ild\u0259 hakimiyy\u0259t\u0259 g\u0259li\u015find\u0259n \u0259vv\u0259l “Gürcü arzusu birmandatl\u0131 dair\u0259l\u0259rd\u0259n regional partiya siyah\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n xeyrin\u0259 imtina ed\u0259c\u0259yini bildirmi\u015fdi, amma m\u0259hz 2016-c\u0131 ild\u0259 keçiril\u0259c\u0259k seçkil\u0259rd\u0259 qalib g\u0259lm\u0259k ist\u0259diyi üçün verdiyi v\u0259d\u0259 \u0259m\u0259l etm\u0259di.<\/span><\/p>\n

Amma h\u0259m hakim partiya, h\u0259m d\u0259 \u0259sas müxalif\u0259tçi qüvv\u0259 olan v\u0259 sor\u011fu n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259rin\u0259 gör\u0259 “Gürcü arzusundan bir neç\u0259 faiz geri qalan “Vahid milli h\u0259r\u0259kat partiyas\u0131n\u0131n o q\u0259d\u0259r d\u0259 populyar olmamas\u0131 s\u0259b\u0259bind\u0259n mütl\u0259q qalib yoxdur. Bu is\u0259 o dem\u0259kdir ki, Gürcüstan tarixind\u0259 ilk d\u0259f\u0259 olaraq, ölk\u0259d\u0259 koalisiya hökum\u0259ti qurulacaq.  Formal olaraq \u0259vv\u0259lki “Gürcü arzusu  hökum\u0259ti d\u0259 alt\u0131 partiya t\u0259r\u0259find\u0259n d\u0259st\u0259kl\u0259nirdi, amma onun f\u0259rdi t\u0259rkibi daha çox seçkil\u0259rin n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259ri il\u0259 deyil, Bidzina \u0130vani\u015fvilinin \u015f\u0259xsi ist\u0259kl\u0259ri il\u0259 mü\u0259yy\u0259n olunurdu. Partiyalar aras\u0131ndak\u0131 g\u0259rgin münasib\u0259tl\u0259ri n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 alsaq, \u0259sl koalisiyan\u0131n yarad\u0131lmas\u0131 ç\u0259tin m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259 ola bil\u0259r.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sonucda koalisiya iki \u0259sas qüvv\u0259d\u0259n birinin bazas\u0131 \u0259sas\u0131nda yarad\u0131la bil\u0259r. Onlar aras\u0131nda ciddi raz\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n oldu\u011funu t\u0259s\u0259vvür etm\u0259k mümkün deyil, çünki h\u0259r iki t\u0259r\u0259f opponentl\u0259rini \u015f\u0259rin t\u0259c\u0259ssümü hesab edir. T\u0259kc\u0259 qalib g\u0259lm\u0259m\u0259k, h\u0259m d\u0259 VMH-i m\u0259hv etm\u0259k “Gürcü arzusunun \u0259sas m\u0259qs\u0259di olaraq qal\u0131r. Bu yax\u0131nlarda partiyan\u0131n ba\u015f katibi \u0130rakli Kobazidze seçicil\u0259r\u0259 söz verib ki, seçkil\u0259rd\u0259n sonra “VMH art\u0131q gürcü siyas\u0259tind\u0259 vacib amil olmayacaq. VMH t\u0259r\u0259fdarlar\u0131 da öz növb\u0259sind\u0259, “Gürcü arzusunu hakimiyy\u0259td\u0259n uzaqla\u015fd\u0131rmaq niyy\u0259tind\u0259 birl\u0259\u015fibl\u0259r. H\u0259r iki \u0259sas qüvv\u0259 “üçüncü t\u0259r\u0259fl\u0259ri, misal üçün Paata Burçuladzenin ba\u015fç\u0131l\u0131q etdiyi “Xalq dövl\u0259t üçün h\u0259r\u0259kat\u0131n\u0131 öz r\u0259qibl\u0259ri il\u0259 \u0259laq\u0259d\u0259 günahland\u0131r\u0131rlar. Be\u015f faizlik seçki baryerini a\u015fmaq \u015fans\u0131 olan ba\u015fqa “üçüncü qüvv\u0259l\u0259r aras\u0131nda \u0130rakli Alasaniyan\u0131n “Azad Demokratlar\u0131, \u015ealva Natela\u015fvilinin populist Leyborist partiyas\u0131 v\u0259 iki a\u015fkar antiq\u0259rb h\u0259r\u0259kat\u0131 olan Gürcüstan V\u0259t\u0259np\u0259rv\u0259rl\u0259ri Birliyi v\u0259 Nino Burcanadzenin ba\u015fç\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 alt\u0131nda “Demokratik h\u0259r\u0259kat – vahid Gürcüstan var. Onlar\u0131n ham\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n qar\u015f\u0131ya qoyulan m\u0259qs\u0259d\u0259 nail olmaq imkan\u0131 olsa da, heç birinin u\u011fur qazanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u0259minlikl\u0259 dem\u0259k mümkün deyil. Onlar\u0131n i\u015ftirak\u0131 il\u0259 koalisiyan\u0131n yarad\u0131lmas\u0131na ehtiyac yaransa,  bu proses heç d\u0259 c\u0259lbedici görünm\u0259y\u0259c\u0259k.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bundan ba\u015fqa, bu seçkil\u0259rd\u0259 cavablar\u0131 al\u0131nmal\u0131 olan iki daha vacid sual da var.  Bunlardan biri d\u0259 ondan ibar\u0259tdir ki, gürcü siyas\u0259tind\u0259 ümumi q\u0259rbyönlü x\u0259tt saxlan\u0131lacaq ya yox. \u018fvv\u0259l mövcud olan \u015fübh\u0259l\u0259r\u0259 v\u0259 “Gürcü arzusunun xüsusi ard\u0131c\u0131ll\u0131\u011f\u0131 il\u0259 f\u0259rql\u0259nm\u0259y\u0259n b\u0259zi nümay\u0259nd\u0259l\u0259rinin b\u0259yanatlar\u0131na baxmayaraq, hökum\u0259t ümumilikd\u0259 özünd\u0259n \u0259vv\u0259lki hakimiyy\u0259tin q\u0259rbyönlü x\u0259ttini saxlad\u0131 v\u0259 ciddi nailiyy\u0259tl\u0259ri il\u0259 öyün\u0259 bil\u0259r: NATO-ya üzv olmaq v\u0259 A\u0130-y\u0259 daxil olmaq perspektivi h\u0259l\u0259 d\u0259 uzaq v\u0259 dumanl\u0131 görüns\u0259 d\u0259, A\u0130 il\u0259 assosiasiya sazi\u015fi imzalan\u0131b, \u015eengen zonas\u0131 ölk\u0259l\u0259rin\u0259 vizas\u0131z gedi\u015f çox güman ki, bu yax\u0131nlarda h\u0259yata keçiril\u0259c\u0259k, NATO il\u0259 \u0259m\u0259kda\u015fl\u0131q gücl\u0259ndirilib. Amma gürcü c\u0259miyy\u0259tinin Q\u0259rb\u0259 münasib\u0259td\u0259 ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 mü\u0259yy\u0259n m\u0259yusluq v\u0259 Rusiyan\u0131n Gürcüstan\u0131n siyasi sinfin\u0259, K\u0130V v\u0259 v\u0259t\u0259nda\u015f c\u0259miyy\u0259tin\u0259  daxil olmaq c\u0259hdl\u0259ri n\u0259tic\u0259sind\u0259 alternativ Avrasiyaya inteqrasiya konsepsiyas\u0131n\u0131n populyarl\u0131\u011f\u0131 artd\u0131, Gürcüstan V\u0259t\u0259np\u0259rv\u0259rl\u0259ri Birliyi  v\u0259 “Demokratik h\u0259r\u0259kat – vahid Gürcüstan kimi a\u015fkar v\u0259 ya yar\u0131a\u015fkar Rusiya yönlü partiyalar\u0131n\u0131n ilk d\u0259f\u0259 olaraq parlamentd\u0259 t\u0259msil olunmaq \u015fans\u0131 yaran\u0131b. Bu, ölk\u0259nin h\u0259r\u0259k\u0259t vektoruna t\u0259sir ed\u0259c\u0259kmi? N\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 alsaq ki, h\u0259r iki apar\u0131c\u0131 qüvv\u0259 özl\u0259rinin Avropa v\u0259 Avro-atlantika ideyalar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 b\u0259yan edirl\u0259r, bu dem\u0259k olar ki, mümkünsüz görünür. Amma hadis\u0259l\u0259rin \u0259n pis inki\u015faf variantlar\u0131n\u0131 da istisna etm\u0259k olmaz. Bilirik ki, seçkil\u0259rin arxas\u0131nca mür\u0259kk\u0259b koalisiya yaratmaq prosesi g\u0259l\u0259 bil\u0259r: yuxar\u0131da qeyd olunan anti-q\u0259rb partiyalar\u0131ndan biri koalisiya üzr\u0259 t\u0259r\u0259fda\u015f kimi seçil\u0259rs\u0259  v\u0259 hökum\u0259t\u0259 öz günd\u0259mini s\u0131r\u0131ya bil\u0259rs\u0259 n\u0259 ba\u015f ver\u0259c\u0259k? Gürcül\u0259r onunla özl\u0259rin\u0259 t\u0259s\u0259lli ver\u0259 bil\u0259rl\u0259r ki, h\u0259m s\u0259mimi olaraq, h\u0259m d\u0259 Rusiya t\u0259r\u0259find\u0259n d\u0259st\u0259kl\u0259n\u0259r\u0259k Avropan\u0131 sevm\u0259y\u0259n v\u0259 q\u0259rb d\u0259y\u0259rl\u0259rin\u0259 qar\u015f\u0131 ç\u0131xanlar add\u0131mbaadd\u0131m h\u0259tta A\u0130 daxilind\u0259 öz gücl\u0259rini art\u0131r\u0131r; amma Gürcüstan A\u0130 üzvl\u0259ri il\u0259 müqayis\u0259d\u0259 xeyli daha z\u0259if v\u0259ziyy\u0259td\u0259dirl\u0259r.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u0259 sonuncu h\u0259m d\u0259 çox vacib m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259 d\u0259 ondan ibar\u0259tdir ki, Gürcüstanda keçiril\u0259n h\u0259r seçkil\u0259rd\u0259 ölk\u0259 demokratiyaya yax\u0131nla\u015f\u0131r, yoxsa ondan uzaqla\u015f\u0131r – sual\u0131 durur. Bundan \u0259vv\u0259lki parlament seçkil\u0259ri böyük nailiyy\u0259t kimi q\u0259bul olundu, çünki müst\u0259qil Gürcüstan\u0131n tarixind\u0259 ilk d\u0259f\u0259 olaraq hakimiyy\u0259t parlament yolu il\u0259 d\u0259yi\u015fdi. Amma bu t\u0259crüb\u0259nin ad\u0259t hal\u0131na çevrilm\u0259si il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 \u0259minlik yoxdur.  Müxalif\u0259t h\u0259r d\u0259f\u0259 var-dövl\u0259ti ölk\u0259nin ÜDM-nun yar\u0131s\u0131ndan bir q\u0259d\u0259r az olan milyarderin namiz\u0259dliyini ir\u0259li sür\u0259 bilm\u0259z (2012-ci ild\u0259 c\u0259nab \u0130vani\u015fvilinin i\u015ftirak\u0131 olmadan hakimiyy\u0259tin d\u0259yi\u015fm\u0259si mümkün deyildi). Populyarl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 itir\u0259n “Gürcü arzusu oktyabrda hakimiyy\u0259tind\u0259n gets\u0259, dem\u0259li parlament yolu il\u0259 hakimiyy\u0259t d\u0259yi\u015fm\u0259si yeni norma kimi b\u0259rq\u0259rar olub, demokratiya da Xuan Lints v\u0259 Alfred \u015etepan\u0131n m\u0259\u015fhur ifad\u0259sind\u0259 deyildiyi kimi, biz t\u0259r\u0259fl\u0259rd\u0259 yegan\u0259 m\u0259\u015f\u011fuliyy\u0259t\u0259 çevrilib. <\/span><\/p>\n

Amma müxalif\u0259t\u0259 qar\u015f\u0131 t\u0259krar olunan fiziki zorak\u0131l\u0131q v\u0259 seçm\u0259 \u0259dal\u0259tli m\u0259hk\u0259m\u0259 hallar\u0131, K\u0130V-\u0259, o cüml\u0259d\u0259n d\u0259 \u0259n populyar müxalif\u0259tçi “Rustavi-2 televiziya kanal\u0131na t\u0259sir etm\u0259k c\u0259hdl\u0259ri, müxalif\u0259tçi siyas\u0259tçil\u0259rin, jurnalistl\u0259rin, Konstitusiya m\u0259hk\u0259m\u0259si hakiml\u0259rinin \u015fantaj v\u0259 t\u0259hdid olunmas\u0131 il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 çoxsayl\u0131 x\u0259b\u0259rl\u0259r, hakim partiyan\u0131n apar\u0131c\u0131 müxalif\u0259tçi qüvv\u0259ni legitim opponent kimi q\u0259bul etm\u0259kd\u0259n aç\u0131q \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 imtina etm\u0259si, istisnas\u0131z onun bütün nümay\u0259nd\u0259l\u0259rinin hakimiyy\u0259t\u0259 burax\u0131lmal\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 dü\u015fünm\u0259si – bütün bunlar göst\u0259rir ki, h\u0259l\u0259lik hakimiyy\u0259t u\u011frunda mübariz\u0259 demokratiyadan çox uzaq olan metodlarla apar\u0131l\u0131r.  Bir çox gürcül\u0259r hesab edir ki, hakim partiya bu metodlar\u0131n hesab\u0131na, h\u0259tta d\u0259st\u0259yi itirs\u0259 bel\u0259 seçkil\u0259rd\u0259 qalib g\u0259l\u0259c\u0259k. O bunu ed\u0259 bil\u0259c\u0259kmi? Bu günün h\u0259qiq\u0259t\u0259n d\u0259 vacib sual\u0131 m\u0259hz budur. <\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/div>\n

Qiya Nodiya<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

* M\u0259qal\u0259d\u0259 bildiril\u0259n fikirl\u0259r mü\u0259llifin nöqtei-n\u0259z\u0259rini \u0259ks etdirir v\u0259 redaksiyan\u0131n mövqeyi il\u0259 üst-üst\u0259 dü\u015fm\u0259y\u0259 bil\u0259r.<\/strong><\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

16.09.2016 <\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Politoloq Giya Nodia oktyabr\u0131n 8-d\u0259 ke\u00e7iril\u0259c\u0259k parlament se\u00e7kil\u0259rinin cavab ver\u0259c\u0259yi 3 \u0259sas sual qoyur\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"formation":[],"post-author":[3613],"topic":[],"tooltip":[],"city":[6047],"class_list":["post-3438","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","post-author-inal-xasiq","city-suxum"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nG\u00fcrc\u00fcstan: Oyuna n\u0259 qoyulub? - JAMnews<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/jam-news.net\/az\/gurcustan-oyuna-n\u0259-qoyulub\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"az_AZ\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"G\u00fcrc\u00fcstan: Oyuna n\u0259 qoyulub? 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