{"id":3218,"date":"2015-12-01T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2015-12-01T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/jam-news.net\/az\/ehtiyatli-munasib%c9%99tl%c9%99r\/"},"modified":"2020-03-18T10:46:00","modified_gmt":"2020-03-18T10:46:00","slug":"ehtiyatli-munasib%c9%99tl%c9%99r","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jam-news.net\/az\/ehtiyatli-munasib%c9%99tl%c9%99r\/","title":{"rendered":"Ehtiyatl\u0131 m\u00fcnasib\u0259tl\u0259r"},"content":{"rendered":"
C\u0259nubi Qafqaz\u0131n siyas\u0259t\u00e7il\u0259ri v\u0259 iqtisad\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131 son zamanar sual edirl\u0259r, Rusiya il\u0259 \u00fcz\u0259rind\u0259n tezlikl\u0259, hardasa 2016-c\u0131 ilin \u0259vv\u0259lind\u0259 neft v\u0259 maliyy\u0259 sanksiyalar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6t\u00fcr\u0259l\u0259c\u0259yi \u0130ran aras\u0131nda \u0259m\u0259kda\u015fl\u0131q n\u0259 d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259d\u0259 hiss olunan olacaq. Bunun \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn \u0259vv\u0259lc\u0259 bel\u0259 bir sual\u0131 n\u0259z\u0259rd\u0259n ke\u00e7ir\u0259k – Rusiya-\u0130ran m\u00fcnasib\u0259tl\u0259ri tam m\u0259nas\u0131yla ba\u015f tuta bil\u0259rmi?<\/span><\/div>\n

\u0130ri birg\u0259 layih\u0259l\u0259rin realiz\u0259sin\u0259 mane ola bil\u0259c\u0259k amill\u0259r:<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

1. Rusiyadak\u0131 iqtisadi v\u0259ziyy\u0259t<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Rusiyadak\u0131 iqtisadi b\u00f6hranla \u0259laq\u0259dar Rusiyan\u0131n enerji \u015firk\u0259tl\u0259ri \u0130ran iqtisadiyyat\u0131na yat\u0131r\u0131mlar etm\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn vacib investisiya vasit\u0259l\u0259rin\u0259 malik deyill\u0259r.<\/span><\/p>\n

2. \u0130ran qanunvericiliyi<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u0130ran qanunvericiliyi ctimai s\u0259rv\u0259t hesab olunan neft v\u0259 qaz sah\u0259sind\u0259 xarici kapital qoyulu\u015funu ciddi \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 m\u0259hdudla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n

3. \u0130ran Avropaya can at\u0131r<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u0130ran \u00f6z enerji imkanlar\u0131ndan Avropa \u0130ttifaq\u0131 il\u0259 dan\u0131\u015f\u0131qlar prosesind\u0259 istifad\u0259 edir. O daha \u00e7ox Rusiya yox, Avropa \u015firk\u0259tl\u0259rind\u0259 maraql\u0131 olacaq ki, bu da \u0130ran\u0131n Avropadak\u0131 m\u00f6vqeyini m\u00f6hk\u0259ml\u0259ndir\u0259c\u0259k v\u0259 \u00fcz\u0259rind\u0259n sanksiyalar\u0131n g\u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fclm\u0259si prosesini tezl\u0259\u015fdir\u0259c\u0259k. Bundan \u0259lav\u0259, Avropa \u015firk\u0259tl\u0259rinin c\u0259lb olunmas\u0131 \u00f6lk\u0259nin enerji sah\u0259sin\u0259 yeni y\u00fcks\u0259k texnologiyalar\u0131n t\u0259tbiqin\u0259 xidm\u0259t ed\u0259c\u0259k.<\/span><\/p>\n

4. Rusiya-\u0130ran m\u00fcnasib\u0259tl\u0259rinin presedenti<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

90-c\u0131 ill\u0259rd\u0259n ba\u015flayaraq d\u00fcz 2006-c\u0131 il\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r Rusiya enerji \u015firk\u0259tl\u0259rinin \u0130ran\u0131n neft v\u0259 qaz\u0131na s\u0259rmay\u0259 yat\u0131rmaq c\u0259hdl\u0259ri iflasa u\u011frad\u0131 v\u0259 bu presedentdir.<\/span><\/p>\n

5. \u0130ran\u0131n proteksionizmi<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Avrasiya \u0130qtisadi Birliyi v\u0259 \u0130ran aras\u0131nda haz\u0131rda he\u00e7 bir perspektiv yoxdur, \u00e7\u00fcnki \u0130ran iqtisadiyyat\u0131n proteksionizm siyas\u0259tini y\u00fcr\u00fcd\u00fcr. O, oz istehsal\u00e7\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 v\u0259 bazar\u0131n\u0131 t\u0259\u015fviq edir.<\/span><\/p>\n

6. Tarixi yadda\u015f<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u0130randa n\u0259 XVIII \u0259sin ax\u0131r\u0131n\u0131, n\u0259 XIX \u0259srin ilk \u00fc\u00e7d\u0259 bir hiss\u0259sini, n\u0259 d\u0259 XX \u0259srin m\u00fcxt\u0259lif m\u0259rh\u0259l\u0259l\u0259rini unudublar. Son on illikl\u0259r \u0259rzind\u0259 iranl\u0131lar\u0131n beynind\u0259 bel\u0259 bir fikir oturu\u015fub ki, Rusiya \u201cQor-\u00c7ernom\u0131rdin raz\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131nda, C-300 sisteml\u0259rinin sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 haqq\u0131nda m\u00fcqavil\u0259ni pozmaqla d\u00fczg\u00fcn h\u0259r\u0259k\u0259t etm\u0259mi\u015fdi. Buna g\u00f6r\u0259 d\u0259 \u0130randa Rusiyaya etibars\u0131z \u00f6lk\u0259 kimi bax\u0131rlar, \u00e7\u00fcnki o ist\u0259nil\u0259n vaxt pis v\u0259ziyy\u0259td\u0259 qoya bil\u0259r.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u0259ziyy\u0259ti n\u0259 d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259 bil\u0259r:<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

1. \u0130ran\u0131n \u00dcTT-d\u0259 \u00fczvl\u00fcy\u00fc<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u0130ran \u00dcTT-nin tamh\u00fcquqlu \u00fczv\u00fc ola bil\u0259r. O, \u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fcn iqtisadi v\u0259 ticar\u0259t sisteminin qism\u0259n liberalla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 yoluyla ged\u0259 bil\u0259r. \u0130ran Rusiyaya g\u00f6r\u0259 deyil, Avrasiya Birliyinin dig\u0259r \u00fczv \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259ri, misal \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn Qazaxstanla ticar\u0259t v\u0259 iqtisadi m\u00fcnasib\u0259tl\u0259ri n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 almaqla bu birliy\u0259 \u00fczv ola bil\u0259r.<\/span><\/p>\n

2. \u201c\u0130p\u0259k yolu<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Rusiya-\u0130ran \u0259m\u0259kda\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00c7inin iqtisadi layih\u0259si olan \u201c\u0130p\u0259k yolunun realiz\u0259si \u00e7\u0259r\u00e7iv\u0259sind\u0259 qar\u015f\u0131l\u0131ql\u0131 m\u00fcnasib\u0259tl\u0259rinin dig\u0259r spektri d\u0259 var. Burada \u0259m\u0259kda\u015fl<\/strong>\u0131q iki istiqam\u0259t \u00fczr\u0259 h\u0259yata ke\u00e7iril\u0259c\u0259k: Tehranla Avrasiya Birliyi aras\u0131nda \u0259m\u0259kda\u015fl\u0131q v\u0259 \u201c\u0130p\u0259k yolunun yarad\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00fczr\u0259 \u00fcmumi maliyy\u0259, n\u0259qliyyat v\u0259 iqtisadi proqram\u0131n h\u0259yata ke\u00e7irilm\u0259sind\u0259 \u0130ran, \u00c7in v\u0259 Avrasiya Birliyinin i\u015ftirak\u0131.<\/span><\/p>\n

3. Geosiyasi maraqlar<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Enerji sah\u0259sind\u0259 obyektiv olaraq Rusiya il\u0259 \u0130ran\u0131n \u0259m\u0259kda\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131na mane olan amill\u0259r oldu\u011fu halda, geosiyasi n\u00f6qteyi-n\u0259z\u0259rd\u0259n bu iki \u00f6lk\u0259 aras\u0131nda bir \u00e7ox regional m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259l\u0259r \u00fczr\u0259 s\u0131x uy\u011funluq var (B\u00f6y\u00fck Yax\u0131n \u015e\u0259rq).<\/span><\/p>\n

4. T\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259sizlik sah\u0259sind\u0259 \u0259m\u0259kda\u015fl\u0131q<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Son bir ne\u00e7\u0259 ay \u0259rzind\u0259ki siyasi raz\u0131la\u015fmalar, o c\u00fcml\u0259d\u0259n d\u0259 C-300 sisteml\u0259rinin \u0130rana sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 Moskva il\u0259 Tehran aras\u0131nda t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259sizlik sah\u0259sind\u0259 h\u0259r\u0259k\u0259tl\u0259rin daha b\u00f6y\u00fck uzla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na xidm\u0259t etdi. \u0130ki \u00f6lk\u0259 aras\u0131nda bir s\u0131ra \u00fcmumi maraqlar var: Rusiyan\u0131n b\u00f6y\u00fck rol oynad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u0130ran n\u00fcv\u0259 proqram\u0131 \u0259traf\u0131nda s\u0131\u00e7ray\u0131\u015f, \u0130ran\u0131n izolyasiyadan g\u0259l\u0259c\u0259k iqtisadi v\u0259 siyasi \u00e7\u0131x\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n perspektivl\u0259ri, h\u0259m d\u0259 Suriya, \u0130raq v\u0259 \u201c\u0130slam d\u00f6vl\u0259ti il\u0259 ba\u011f\u0131 m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259l\u0259r.<\/span><\/p>\n

5. H\u0259rbi \u0259m\u0259kda\u015fl\u0131q<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Moskva il\u0259 Tehran aras\u0131nda ciddi yax\u0131nla\u015fma ba\u015f verir. \u0130ran, \u0130raq, \u018fs\u0259d rejimi v\u0259 Moskva aras\u0131nda situasion h\u0259rbi-siyasi alyans formala\u015f\u0131b. Bu alyans\u0131n ill\u00fcstrasiyas\u0131 \u0130ran v\u0259 \u0130raq\u0131n hava m\u0259kan\u0131ndan u\u00e7an qanadl\u0131 raketl\u0259rin X\u0259z\u0259r d\u0259nizinin c\u0259nub akvatoriyas\u0131ndan qalxmas\u0131 oldu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusiyan\u0131n \u0130randa h\u0259rbi hava i\u015ftirak\u0131 format\u0131n\u0131n geni\u015fl\u0259nm\u0259si qa\u00e7\u0131lmaz olur, \u00e7\u00fcnki Rusiya aviasiyas\u0131na s\u0131\u00e7ray\u0131\u015f aerodromlar\u0131 laz\u0131m olacaq. \u0130ran v\u0259 \u0130raq aerodromlar\u0131n\u0131n istifad\u0259si m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr. Erm\u0259nistan \u0259razisind\u0259ki inrfastrukturun, o c\u00fcml\u0259d\u0259n radiolokasiya stansiyalar\u0131 v\u0259 rabit\u0259 sisteml\u0259rinin istifad\u0259si d\u0259 istisna olunmur.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bu an \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn viz\u0259yy\u0259t nec\u0259dir:<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

1. Ehtiyatl\u0131<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u0130ran\u0131n \u00fcz\u0259rind\u0259n sanksiyalar\u0131n g\u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fclm\u0259si bu \u00f6lk\u0259y\u0259 m\u00fcxt\u0259lif d\u00f6vl\u0259tl\u0259r, o c\u00fcml\u0259d\u0259n d\u0259 Rusiyayla \u0259m\u0259kda\u015fl\u0131q \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn bir \u00e7ox imkanlar verir. Amma \u0130ran h\u0259l\u0259 ki Rusiyaya \u015f\u00fcbh\u0259 il\u0259 yana\u015f\u0131r v\u0259 \u0259m\u0259kda\u015fl\u0131\u011fa ehtiyatla gedir. \u00c7ox g\u00fcman ki, \u0130ran ancaq onun maraqlar\u0131na cavab ver\u0259n s\u00f6vd\u0259l\u0259\u015fm\u0259l\u0259r\u0259 ged\u0259c\u0259k.<\/span><\/p>\n

2. Maraqlar\u0131n konflikti<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Bel\u0259 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u0259 bil\u0259r ki, h\u0259l\u0259 inqilabdan \u0259vv\u0259lki Rusiyan\u0131n \u0259n vacib ticar\u0259t partnyorlar\u0131ndan olan \u0130rana qar\u015f\u0131 sanksiyalar\u0131n l\u0259\u011fv edilm\u0259si Rusiyan\u0131n milli maraqlar\u0131na cavab verm\u0259lidir. Amma Rusiya \u00f6z n\u00f6vb\u0259sind\u0259, \u0130ran\u0131n regiona g\u00fccl\u00fc r\u0259qib d\u00f6vl\u0259t kimi g\u0259lm\u0259sin\u0259 v\u0259 d\u00fcnya bazar\u0131nda yeni iri neft v\u0259 qaz t\u0259chizat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcz\u0259 \u00e7\u0131xmas\u0131na sevin\u0259 bilm\u0259z.<\/span><\/p>\n

3. C\u0259nubi Qafqaz regionunda r\u0259qab\u0259t<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

C\u0259nubi Qafqaz regionunda Rusiya il\u0259 \u0130ran\u0131n birg\u0259 layih\u0259l\u0259ri a\u011flabatan deyil, \u00e7\u00fcnki h\u0259r iki d\u00f6vl\u0259t regionda eyni m\u0259qs\u0259di g\u00fcd\u00fcr: \u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fcn regionda t\u0259sirini v\u0259 m\u00f6vcudlu\u011funu art\u0131rmaq. NATO \u00f6z m\u00f6vqel\u0259rini m\u00f6hk\u0259ml\u0259ndirdiyi, Amerikan\u0131n m\u00f6vqel\u0259rinin m\u00f6hk\u0259ml\u0259ndiyi d\u00f6vrd\u0259 Rusiyayla \u0130ran aras\u0131nda hans\u0131sa qeyri-r\u0259smi sisteml\u0259\u015fdirilm\u0259mi\u015f birlik vard\u0131. Bu g\u00fcn Q\u0259rb yava\u015f-yava\u015f C\u0259nubi Qafqazdan o c\u00fcml\u0259d\u0259n d\u0259, uzun ill\u0259r boyu Q\u0259rbin \u0259sas m\u0259qs\u0259di hesab edil\u0259n Az\u0259rbaycandan geri \u00e7\u0259kilir. Bununla da Rusiyayla \u0130ran aras\u0131nda r\u0259qab\u0259t art\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n

B\u00fct\u00fcn yuxar\u0131da qeyd olunan arqumentl\u0259r s\u0259b\u0259bind\u0259n iri ciddi birg\u0259 layih\u0259l\u0259rin realiz\u0259si inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcr, bu da bu iki \u00f6lk\u0259nin C\u0259nubi Qafqaz regionunda \u0259m\u0259kda\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n t\u0259sirini minimalla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131r.<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

Ekspert fikrini Erm\u0259nistan\u0131n \u201cC\u0259miyy\u0259tin t\u0259dqiqat m\u0259rk\u0259zinin direktoru, iran\u015f\u00fcnas Sevak Saruxanyan, Qafqaz \u0130nstitutunun direktor m\u00fcavini, politoloq Sergey Minasyan bildirdil\u0259r <\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Rusiya-\u0130ran \u0259m\u0259kda\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n C\u0259nubi Qafqaz regionuna t\u0259siri<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":18911,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"formation":[],"post-author":[],"topic":[],"tooltip":[],"city":[],"class_list":["post-3218","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-siyast"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nEhtiyatl\u0131 m\u00fcnasib\u0259tl\u0259r - JAMnews<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/jam-news.net\/az\/ehtiyatli-munasib\u0259tl\u0259r\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"az_AZ\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Ehtiyatl\u0131 m\u00fcnasib\u0259tl\u0259r - 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